[AKYUNG Poll] Oh Se-hoon and Park Hyung-joon Show Higher Election Chances Than Candidate Support Ratings

Oh Se-hoon 62.1% > Park Young-sun 33%
Park Hyung-joon 70.5% > Kim Young-choon 23.2%
Strong confidence among People Power Party supporters
in the likelihood of their party candidates winning

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] In a survey asking who is expected to win the by-elections for Seoul Mayor and Busan Mayor, citizens all chose the candidates from the People Power Party.

According to a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 30th and 31st of last month, before the publication ban period, targeting 1,020 voters residing in Seoul and 1,012 voters residing in Busan, Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon and Busan mayoral candidate Park Hyung-joon received 62.1% and 70.5% of responses respectively. This is higher than their actual approval ratings. In other words, quite a few people think, "I support candidate OOO, but the actual winner will be the opposing candidate."

Regarding the likelihood of the candidate from their supported party winning, supporters of the People Power Party showed strong confidence, while supporters of the Democratic Party showed less. Among Seoul respondents who stated they support the People Power Party, 95.0% believed that candidate Oh has a high chance of winning.

On the other hand, 76.8% of Democratic Party supporters thought candidate Park would win. Among Busan respondents, 63.2% of Democratic Party supporters viewed candidate Kim's chances of winning as high, while only 31.0% thought candidate Park would win. Conversely, 96.1% of Busan citizens who chose the People Power Party as their supported party predicted candidate Park's victory.

The possibility that this prevailing trend will translate into actual voting results also appears high. Among Seoul respondents, 89.2% said they would vote for the candidate they currently support.

Meanwhile, 8.6% answered that their choice "might change," and 2.2% said they "do not know." In Busan, 87.9% expressed their intention to "continue supporting" their candidate. The responses "might change" and "do not know" were 9.8% and 2.3%, respectively.

According to the Public Official Election Act, the publication of poll results is prohibited from the 1st of this month until 8 p.m. on the 7th, but it is allowed to publish or report on poll results conducted until the 31st of last month during this period.

This poll was conducted on the 30th and 31st of last month, targeting men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul (1,020 people) and Busan Metropolitan City (1,012 people). It was conducted using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method, and the sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January. Weighting was applied by gender, age, and region (cell weighting). The response rate was 6.8% for Seoul citizens and 12.5% for Busan citizens. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.