Oh Se-hoon 57.5% vs Park Young-sun 36.0%... Gap Widens by Over 20 Percentage Points

by Oh Jooyean

Published 01 Apr.2021 10:10(KST)

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In a survey conducted just before the ban on publishing opinion polls for the April 7 by-election, Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, was found to be significantly ahead of Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Newsis from March 30 to 31, targeting 806 residents of Seoul aged 18 and over, Oh's support rate was 57.5%, leading Park's 36.0% by 21.5 percentage points. This figure is well beyond the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

Oh led in support across all age groups, including a strong lead among the solid 40s demographic.

Among those aged 18-29, Oh's support was 51.2%, while Park's was 32.7%. The 30s, expected to have high early voting turnout, also favored Oh at 52.8% versus 39.1%. The same trend was observed in the 40s (50.7% vs 43.3%) and 50s (51.7% vs 45.8%). Notably, the gap widened further among those aged 60 and over (73.4% vs 24.9%).

By ideological inclination, Oh had overwhelming support among conservatives at 82.3%, while Park led progressives with 74.4%. Among moderates, Oh (66.5%) was more than twice as popular as Park (28.1%).

When asked about the likelihood of winning, 62.3% of respondents said Oh, while 34.7% said Park, a gap of 27.6 percentage points.

87.1% of respondents said they would 'continue to support' their current candidate, surpassing the 11.4% who said there was a possibility of change. This suggests that voter preferences have largely been decided.

In the next presidential candidate preference survey, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl received 38.2% support, ahead of Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung (21.5%) and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon (11.1%).

Meanwhile, from April 1, one week before the April 7 by-election, until 8 p.m. on election day, the publication or reporting of opinion polls predicting party support or election outcomes is prohibited. However, it remains possible to publish or report on polls conducted up to March 31 even after April 1.