North Korea Raises Level of Military Provocations, Next is 'SLBM'

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho, Military Specialist Yang Nak-gyu] North Korea's launch of two ballistic missile-like projectiles on the 25th is interpreted as a response to the tightening pressure from the United States and its allies, including South Korea and Japan, by resorting to a military provocation card.

With U.S. President Joe Biden's review of North Korea policy entering its final stages, such a provocative variable increases the likelihood that the U.S. will place more emphasis on the stick (sanctions) rather than the carrot (incentives).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Unification on the 25th, following the launch of two cruise missiles on the 21st, North Korea launched two ballistic missile-like projectiles on the morning of the 25th, prompting the government to enter an emergency response mode.

The government is taking a cautious stance regarding the background of North Korea raising the level of military provocations. The military, along with U.S. military and intelligence authorities, is analyzing data to determine the types of missiles launched and their flight distances.

Short-range cruise missiles are not subject to United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution violations, but ballistic missiles violate the resolutions regardless of distance.

The military also assesses a high possibility of additional provocations by North Korea.

The limited number of test launches of the new weapons triple set?new tactical guided missiles, super-large multiple rocket launchers, and the North Korean version of ATACMS?suggests a high likelihood of further launches.

Moreover, considering North Korea unveiled the improved version of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Pukguksong-5, in January, the possibility of additional SLBM launches is even higher.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense Forum (KODEF), said, "Since North Korea launched two missiles at intervals of about 20 minutes, there is a possibility that the improved North Korean version of Iskander or the North Korean version of ATACMS, which was publicly displayed at the 8th Party Congress military parade and has undergone four test launches, was involved."

If North Korea conducts additional provocations, increased pressure from the U.S. and the international community will inevitably escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's military provocations could act as a variable in the final stages of the U.S.'s new North Korea policy review.

The South Korean and U.S. governments initially concealed North Korea's cruise missile launch on the 21st, and when U.S. media reports surfaced on the 23rd (local time), they responded that it was not a violation of the UN Security Council resolution. Until then, it was interpreted that the South Korean and U.S. governments still kept the door open for dialogue with North Korea.

However, the ballistic missile launch on the 25th could completely change the situation. Regardless of whether it violates the UN Security Council resolution, North Korea's shift to a hardline stance through military provocations increases the incentive for the international community to choose pressure through alliances over dialogue.

It is also highly likely to affect the results of the upcoming trilateral security chiefs meeting among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan scheduled for next week.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "It seems highly likely that tensions will unfold on the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea's enhanced nuclear capabilities, similar to the situation in 2016-2017."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.