US Projects 7% Economic Growth This Year... Will It Surpass China?

[Asia Economy Reporter Kiho Sung] There is a forecast that the US economic growth rate could surpass China this year. This is due to the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and the implementation of astronomical-scale economic stimulus measures.

CNN Business reported on the 12th (local time) that with the implementation of the economic stimulus plan by the Joe Biden administration, the US could surpass China in economic growth rate in 2021 for the first time in decades. The Chinese government has set a growth target of "over 6%" for this year.

Goldman Sachs recently projected the US growth rate for this year at 6.9%, the highest since 1984, while Morgan Stanley forecasted a 7.3% growth. The consensus growth rate forecast for China, compiled by global financial data firm Refinitiv, was 8.4%.

According to World Bank statistics, the last time the US growth rate exceeded China’s was in 1976. The closest was in 1999 during the dot-com boom, when the US and China growth rates were 4.8% and 7.7%, respectively.

One of the factors behind the high growth rate forecast for the US economy this year is the rapid economic recovery expected due to a significant reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths as vaccine distribution expands.

Additionally, the recently completed COVID-19 relief bill amounts to $1.9 trillion (approximately 2159 trillion won), which is larger than what was anticipated before last year’s election or earlier this year, also influencing the outlook.

However, there remains a possibility that the US may not surpass China in economic growth rate this year. There could be setbacks in the US vaccine program, or new obstacles such as virus variants may emerge. Even if the US does overtake China, it is likely to be limited to this year alone.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.