A Definitive Game Changer, Completely Transformed Election

Early in the Election, the Opposition Had No Presence, but Yoon's Resignation and the LH Scandal Caused a Rapid Shift
Opposition Candidates Gain Advantageous Position, Solidifying Lead with Continuous Criticism of LH
Ruling Party Cornered, Switches to Offensive... Policies Disappear, Turning Election into Populism

[Asia Economy Reporters Oh Ju-yeon, Geum Bo-ryeong] The emergence of ‘politician Yoon Seok-yeol’ and the aftermath of public officials’ land speculation triggered by Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) are shaking up the 4.7 by-election landscape with a rising ‘regime judgment theory.’ Opposition party candidates for Seoul mayor are determined to deliver a decisive blow, while the ruling party camp, which has needed a turnaround in the election tide, is showing an offensive stance that it had previously restrained. In particular, regarding the LH scandal, they openly express dissatisfaction with the ruling party and government’s lukewarm response and have launched a frontal breakthrough. Meanwhile, policies for Seoul citizens have disappeared, and there is an analysis that this election is also heading toward slander, black propaganda, and populism.

Photo by Park Young-sun Camp Provided

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor, held a launch ceremony for the election countermeasure committee at Anguk Building in Jongno-gu on the 12th and formally proposed a special prosecutor to the Democratic Party. Park said, "Yesterday, the government joint investigation team confirmed additional suspected cases of speculation, which is devastating," and stated that she would wait for a response from Floor Leader Kim Tae-nyeon regarding the special prosecutor. Kim immediately expressed willingness to accept the proposal.

Park’s proposal appears to be a strategic move that emerged as the recent allegations overturned the election landscape with just over a week left before the opposition’s unified candidate announcement. It is also interpreted as reflecting the anxiety caused by the election momentum shifting toward the ‘regime judgment theory’ due to the LH scandal and the Yoon Seok-yeol effect.

According to a Korea Gallup survey conducted from the 9th to 11th among 1,003 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, former Prime Minister Yoon tied for first place with Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung at 24%. Yoon’s favorability surged by 15 percentage points from 9% a month ago, while Lee’s dropped by 3 percentage points. Regarding next year’s presidential election, 48% responded that they want an opposition candidate elected for regime change, higher than the 40% who want an opposition candidate elected to maintain the current regime.

In this situation, as the Seoul mayoral election is increasingly likely to favor the opposition, the election battle among candidates is deteriorating from a ‘policy’ contest over Seoul city plans and real estate supply measures into political ‘battles.’ Park, who had mainly emphasized policies such as Seoul’s great transformation, the 21-minute city, and early COVID-19 eradication, as well as her ministerial experience, is showing signs of moving away from that stance. Although she had refrained from mentioning her opponents, she indirectly criticized People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon and People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo by saying, "The old experience of failing by trying to discriminate children’s lunch bowls, and the rootless philosophy that has been wandering from house to house for 10 years claiming to do new politics cannot be relied upon," referring to their opposition to free school meals for elementary students.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Conversely, candidates Oh and Ahn are continuously attacking the LH issue.

Ahn held a press conference in front of the LH Seoul Regional Headquarters in Gangnam, Seoul, on the morning of the same day regarding the new town speculation scandal. He said, "Speculation by public officials is an unforgivable crime," and added, "We will eradicate all real estate speculation to show that fairness and justice live on this land."

Oh also stated on Facebook the previous day, "The Moon Jae-in administration, which threatens a ‘war on crime,’ is answerless," and argued, "The prosecution, which has experience and capability in investigating real estate speculation, should take the lead to conduct a swift investigation."

Some predict that the confrontation between ruling and opposition candidates may intensify going forward.

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University Graduate School of Policy said, "If the LH scandal is not resolved before the election, baseless disputes unrelated to policy will run rampant, which could be disadvantageous to the Democratic Party and corner them," and added, "That is why they mentioned a ‘special prosecutor’ that the opposition can also accept." He further noted, "From the ruling party’s perspective, it is a shift from defense to offense."

Jang Seong-cheol, director of the Sympathy and Debate Policy Center, analyzed, "There are four major factors influencing elections: structure, justification, candidates, and policies," and said, "Both ruling and opposition parties are similar in terms of policies and candidates, but the ruling party lacks justification, and the election structure favors the opposition according to surveys." He added, "In the future, during the process where unification and the LH issue act as variables, verbal or behavioral mistakes among candidates could affect the election landscape."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.