"Buy on Black Monday"... Japan's Nomura Forecasts 590,000 for Samsung, 4 Million for SK hynix

"TSMC Valued at 20x, While Samsung and SK hynix Remain at 6x PER"
AI Proliferation Expected to Drive Explosive Memory Demand Over the Next Five Years

Japan's Nomura Securities has raised its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to 5.9 million won and 40 million won, respectively.

On the 15th, when the KOSPI index surpassed the 8,000 mark intraday for the first time in history, Samsung Electronics stock price was displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.5.15 Photo by Jin-Hyung Kang

According to the financial investment industry on the 17th, Nomura Securities increased the target price for Samsung Electronics from the previous 3.4 million won to 5.9 million won and the target price for SK hynix from 23.4 million won to 40 million won in a report released on the 15th.

Nomura Securities explained, "Currently, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is at around 6 times," adding, "They should be valued at the level of TSMC, where the PER is about 20 times."

Nomura went on to say that while memory prices have historically tracked demand for PCs and smartphones, the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) is now structurally driving memory demand. It asserted that the two companies should be re-evaluated not as traditional cyclical stocks but as structural growth stocks.

In addition, Nomura projected that over the next five years, demand for KV (key value) cache—a type of memory space that reduces computational latency—will surge by several thousand times due to the expansion of agentic AI, while memory supply growth during the same period will be limited to about 5 to 6 times (an annual increase of 30%), making it difficult to keep up with demand.

The report also pointed out that global data center capital expenditures (CAPEX) are expected to soar from 1.16 trillion dollars in 2025 to 5.13 trillion dollars in 2030, an increase of over fivefold. During this period, the proportion of memory in total CAPEX is also expected to expand from 9% to 23%. Nomura cited the surge in memory demand as the main driver behind the expansion of data center investment.

Nomura especially noted that, whereas in the past, memory contracts were often canceled by customers during downturns, a significant number of recent contracts are in the form of long-term agreements (LTAs) lasting three to five years. These contracts include provisions for advance payments and shared costs for capacity expansion, making contract termination unlikely.

Accordingly, Nomura forecast that Samsung Electronics' operating profit will rise from 307 trillion won in 2026 to 511 trillion won in 2028, while SK hynix's operating profit is expected to increase from 281 trillion won to 480 trillion won over the same period.

Previously, on the last trading day of last week, the New York Stock Exchange closed lower as investors rushed to realize profits in technology stocks amid concerns over inflation driven by high oil prices and a surge in interest rates. Samsung Electronics fell 7.09%, closing at 275,000 won, while SK hynix dropped 6.45%, falling below the 1.9 million won mark.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.