[Good Morning Stock Market] Europe Strengthens... Will KOSPI Hit 3200 Again?

On the 15th, KOSPI opened at 3,108.70, up 8.12 points (0.26%) from the previous trading day, as employees were working in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. KOSDAQ opened at 965.83, up 1.52 points (0.16%) from the previous trading day. The won-dollar exchange rate started at 1,105.0 won, down 2.0 won from the previous trading day. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Junho] While the U.S. stock market was closed on the 15th (local time) for Presidents' Day, European stock markets showed strength on the 16th amid expectations of economic recovery. International oil prices also rose, largely driven by these optimistic sentiments. For this reason, positive outlooks were also raised regarding the Korean stock market, which closed higher the previous day led by semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics.

Economic Optimism Leads to European Gains... Positive for Korea as Well

Seosangyoung, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, forecasted that the KOSPI would start higher and continue to absorb selling pressure. Although the U.S. was closed for Presidents' Day, Europe saw an expansion of economic normalization expectations, resulting in gains(Germany +0.42%, UK +2.52%, France +1.45%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.04%). Financials, energy, leisure, travel, and retail sectors led the gains. This is expected to positively influence the Korean stock market by boosting investor sentiment, according to Seosangyoung’s outlook.

However, the rise in international oil prices is a point to watch closely. Increasing oil prices can put upward pressure on inflation. If inflationary pressures intensify and interest rates rise faster, it could increase volatility in the stock market. WTI crude oil surpassed $60 for the first time since January last year during after-hours trading. WTI has surged 16% this month, marking the longest consecutive rise in two years. This was influenced by heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, such as Saudi Arabia shooting down drones from Yemeni rebels attacking its airports. Additionally, a winter storm hitting the Texas region raised concerns about potential disruptions in shale oil production. As a result, U.S. hedge funds are simultaneously increasing net purchases of crude oil futures and options.

Seosangyoung predicted, "The Korean stock market is expected to start higher led by strength in financials, energy, and retail sectors, but it will still show a process of absorbing selling pressure amid concerns over interest rates."

Will Semiconductor Stocks Continue Their Uptrend?

The main driver of the KOSPI’s 1.05% rise the previous day was semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics. During the Lunar New Year holidays (February 11-12), the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 5%, leading related stocks higher. Foreign investors also net purchased more than 700 billion KRW on that day.

Kim Younggeon, a researcher at Mirae Asset Daewoo, projected that considering the turnaround in memory semiconductor export growth this month, it is an appropriate time to increase exposure. DRAM exports from the 1st to the 10th of this month rose 21.6%, and since exports are usually lower at the beginning of the month compared to the end, total exports this month are likely to be larger than in previous years. Multi-Chip Package (MCP) exports also reversed to growth at the beginning of this month, indicating a positive outlook.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.