[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will Biden Abandon the USFK Withdrawal Card?

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[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] With the inauguration of the Biden administration in the U.S., evaluations are emerging that there will be no reduction of U.S. Forces Korea. This analysis is based on President Joe Biden putting a halt to the troop reduction policy for U.S. forces in Germany announced by the previous Donald Trump administration, which is expected to have an impact.

President Biden visited the State Department on the 4th (local time). At this event, President Biden stated, "We will lead a review of the global deployment of U.S. forces, and during the review process, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Germany will be suspended."

Former President Trump had announced plans to reduce the 36,000 U.S. troops in Germany to 24,000. The plan involved redeploying 5,600 troops within Europe and returning 6,400 troops to the United States.

Former President Trump also exercised a veto on the 2021 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), citing provisions that limited the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Korea, Germany, and Afghanistan. Particularly, concerns about adjustments to the size of U.S. Forces Korea intensified when the joint statement from the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between the U.S. and South Korea defense ministers in October last year omitted language about maintaining the current level of approximately 28,500 U.S. troops in Korea.

Trump’s mention of withdrawing U.S. forces from Germany was seen as stemming from dissatisfaction with Germany’s defense spending levels. In this context, concerns arose that Trump, who claimed South Korea was free-riding with low contributions, might also withdraw U.S. forces from Korea.

However, with the Biden administration putting the reduction of U.S. forces in Germany on ‘hold,’ there is speculation that concerns about reductions in U.S. Forces Korea may be partially alleviated. Especially, President Biden criticized the previous administration for treating alliances as transactions rather than values and has placed ‘restoring alliances’ as the top priority in his foreign policy.

Given the Biden administration’s approach, it can be interpreted that there is a significant possibility that there will be no reduction of U.S. Forces Korea without South Korea’s consent. The White House also stated yesterday regarding the call between the U.S. and South Korean leaders, "President Biden emphasized his commitment to strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance, a key pillar of peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia," to President Moon Jae-in.

Of course, since its inauguration, the Biden administration has launched a comprehensive review of the efficient deployment of U.S. forces worldwide, and President Biden’s remarks on this day mean that the reduction of U.S. forces in Germany will be frozen until this review is completed and a conclusion is reached, so it is premature to jump to conclusions. If it is judged that adjustments are necessary for efficiency, whether for U.S. Forces Korea or U.S. Forces Germany, reductions could materialize.

The U.S. Congress also created a new ‘Pacific Deterrence Initiative’ item in the 2021 fiscal year defense budget, allocating $2.2 billion. This is aimed at strengthening U.S. military posture in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, implying the possibility of adjustments to the role of U.S. Forces Korea.

The U.S. government emphasizes strategic flexibility of its forces worldwide, and especially under the Biden administration’s motto of ‘America is back,’ signaling a revival of engagement policies, so the possibility of temporary overseas deployment or role changes of U.S. Forces Korea in emergencies cannot yet be ruled out.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.