[Good Morning Stock Market] "Kospi Likely Not Heavily Burdened Despite Dividend Cut Impact Today"

[Asia Economy Reporter Minji Lee] Although the ex-dividend date, when the opportunity to receive dividends disappears, is approaching, the domestic stock market on the 29th is expected to show little volatility. This is based on the judgment that the decline will be considerably limited even amid the ex-dividend date, as preference for risky assets continues.

According to the ex-dividend index provided by the Korea Exchange, the securities industry expects the KOSPI to open at 2,764.33 points, down about 1.58% (44.27 points) from the previous day. Even if the KOSPI falls by about 44 points on that day, it essentially means no loss.

◆ Jeong In-ji, Yuanta Securities Researcher = According to the ex-dividend index provided by the exchange, the index is expected to start about 44 points lower. However, since December 2010 until last year, there has been a difference between the theoretical ex-dividend drop and the actual ex-dividend drop of the index. The theoretical average ex-dividend index was -1.42%, but the actual average ex-dividend recorded by the index was -0.38%. This means the actual ex-dividend drop was smaller than the theoretical ex-dividend drop. The same applies to the KOSDAQ index. Since the end of 2010 until last year, the opening price on the ex-dividend date was higher than the previous day's closing price.

In the case of the KOSDAQ index, it is expected that the mid- to long-term trend change can be estimated depending on whether it breaks through the previous high level after the ex-dividend date. Looking at past cases, when the KOSDAQ index, which generally showed a bearish trend, unexpectedly showed an upward trend, the subsequent price fluctuations after the ex-dividend date determined the future direction of the index.

Previously, the KOSDAQ index showed strong upward momentum twice in the fourth quarter, in December 2005 and December 2017. In early 2006, it expanded the correction range without surpassing the 2005 high. On the other hand, in 2018, it broke through the previous high level and continued the short-term upward trend. The current high level of the KOSDAQ index is 954.34 points, and it is expected that the possibility of a mid- to long-term trend change can be examined depending on whether the index breaks through the upper range after the ex-dividend date.

◆ Seo Jeong-hoon, Samsung Securities Researcher = The US stock market closed higher on the 28th (local time) as the passage of an additional stimulus package was confirmed, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index rose 0.87% compared to the previous day, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.68%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index (0.75%) also increased. European markets also showed strength due to the Brexit negotiation settlement effect. The German DAX index rose 1.4% that day, the French CAC index showed a 1.2% increase, and the pan-European STOXX 50 index rose 0.91%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is analyzed that the impact came from President Trump’s final signing of the stimulus bill, which he had opposed, and the passage of next year’s budget, alleviating concerns about a government shutdown. This bill included a universal cash payment plan, additional unemployment benefits, and tenant support.

Accordingly, in the US stock market, most large tech stocks listed among the top market capitalization names showed an upward trend. Apple rose 3.58%, while Amazon (3.5%), Facebook (3.6%), Alphabet (2.3%), and Microsoft (1.0%) also increased. Stocks benefiting from the reopening of economic activities also showed gains, with department store operator Macy’s (8.5%) and cruise operator Carnival (4.2%) showing strength.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.