[Global Column] The Future of COVID-19 and Globalization

The novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), which is known to have started in Wuhan, China at the end of last year, spread rapidly within a relatively short period. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

COVID-19 has become a significant event that could cause fundamental changes in the world order, rather than just a simple epidemic. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger predicted that "the COVID-19 pandemic will permanently change the world order." Even if COVID-19 ends, we cannot return to the world before COVID-19, so we must prepare for the 'new normal' of the international order.

The global spread of COVID-19 was partly due to the structural environment of globalization. Globalization is the process of promoting the free international movement of goods, services, capital, and labor, leading to economic integration on a global scale. While globalization contributed to the economic development of each country, it also intensified the risk of problems arising in one country spreading to others. If the 2008 global financial crisis demonstrated how quickly financial risks could spread due to globalization, the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 showed how rapidly health risks can spread alongside globalization. Because of this, there is growing recognition that globalization is risky, which could trigger deglobalization.

First, the rapid contraction of global trade raises awareness of the risks caused by economic interdependence resulting from globalization. Peter Navarro, Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy at the White House, pointed out that the U.S. economy is "dangerously overdependent on global value chains," and Bruno Le Maire, France’s Minister of Finance, stated that "there is a need to reduce dependence, especially on China." Phil Hogan, the European Union (EU) Commissioner for Trade, emphasized that "open trade policies are an important part of future economic recovery plans," but also argued that "it is necessary to consider ways to secure the EU’s strategic autonomy." Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison also said, "An open trading system has been a key element of Australia’s economic prosperity, but domestic economic sovereignty must also be carefully examined."

International leadership necessary for the stable management of globalization after COVID-19 has also been seriously undermined. Since 1945, the United States has exercised hegemonic leadership to maintain the stability of the international order. However, the confusion shown by the Donald Trump administration during the COVID-19 response increased negative evaluations of the U.S.’s international role. This significantly weakened the U.S.’s soft power. The soft power of China, which was assumed to potentially replace U.S. hegemonic leadership, faced similar difficulties.

When efforts by countries to regain economic sovereignty or autonomy combine with the vacuum in international leadership, a 'conflictual deglobalization' characterized by both the contraction and instability of globalization may become the 'new normal' of the international order after COVID-19. South Korea, which has a high dependence on the global economy, must prepare survival strategies in this new order of conflictual deglobalization. At the same time, as a middle power, South Korea must also make diplomatic efforts to prevent conflictual deglobalization. To this end, it is necessary to consider how to actively contribute to creating 'managed globalization' that can mitigate the risks of globalization through international cooperation and consensus.

Jae-Hwan Jeong, Professor, Department of International Relations, Ulsan University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.