Some Product Sales Halted Amid Nationwide AI Spread... Will Egg Prices Rise?

Egg Sales Halted Near AI Outbreak Site
Price Hike Concerns Drive Up Egg Purchases
Distribution Industry Increases Stockpiles and Diversifies Sources
Prolonged AI May Cause Price Surge Worries

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Seung-jin] Avian influenza (AI) is spreading uncontrollably nationwide at an unprecedented speed. The rapid spread has raised concerns that, as was the case three years ago during the worst AI outbreak in history, there might be a crisis involving eggs or chicken meat, increasing consumer anxiety.

Consumers Stockpile Eggs in Anticipation of Price Increases

At 8 p.m. on the 10th, a notice was posted at the egg sales counter of Emart Wangsimni branch in Seongdong-gu, Seoul, announcing the suspension of the sale of ultra-fresh eggs, described as "eggs laid yesterday and sold only today." The notice stated that the farm producing these eggs is located within 3 km of the AI outbreak area in Yeoju, and as a preventive measure, all laying hens have been culled, making sales impossible until the 23rd.

With increased demand for home dining due to the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), more customers have been seeking eggs. However, with the AI outbreak, some customers expressed concerns about a potential egg crisis. A housewife in her 40s, Joo Mi-ryeong (pseudonym), whom we met at the mart, said, "I usually buy a carton of 30 eggs when I shop, but today I bought an additional 15-egg pack," adding, "I am stocking up in case egg prices suddenly double overnight as they did before."

When AI first emerged in the early 2000s, chicken consumption plummeted due to fears of human infection, causing prices to collapse. However, as AI outbreaks have recurred annually, consumer perceptions have changed, maintaining consumption levels while supply decreased, resulting in temporary price spikes each time AI occurs. This year, with increased home dining demand due to COVID-19, there are concerns that prices could rise even more significantly if AI persists.

During the 2016-2017 outbreak, which showed a similar spread rate to this year, an "egg crisis" occurred. At that time, 37.87 million chickens and ducks were culled. Notably, 36% of laying hens were disposed of, causing the price of a carton of eggs (30 eggs) to exceed 10,000 won in some areas. Additionally, supermarkets limited egg sales to one carton per person, leading to long lines early in the morning. In response, the government imported fresh eggs from the United States by air for the first time.

Distribution Industry Responds by Increasing Reserves and Diversifying Production Areas

The distribution industry, including large supermarkets and convenience stores, has taken preemptive measures in anticipation of difficulties in securing chicken and eggs.

A representative from a major supermarket explained, "We are considering various countermeasures, such as expanding processed products and securing farms in Gyeongsang-do, an area unaffected by AI." The convenience store industry has also responded by increasing the supply of processed foods containing chicken and storing some of the stock.

However, if the AI outbreak prolongs, price increases for unprocessed refrigerated chicken are inevitable. A supermarket representative said, "It is difficult to secure refrigerated chicken in advance due to freshness issues," adding, "For frozen chicken and processed foods, we have sufficient reserves, so if AI persists, we will release those stocks."

Despite growing concerns that egg and chicken supply could become unstable due to AI spread, the government maintains that supply capacity is still sufficient. This year, the number of laying hens and broilers raised is 4.5% and 8% higher than average, respectively. Frozen broiler stock has also increased by 41%. According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT), the retail price of chicken per kilogram on the 10th was 4,999 won, 100 won cheaper than a year ago.

Meanwhile, AI has spread nationwide within two weeks. Starting from a meat duck farm in Jeongeup, Jeonbuk, on the 27th of last month, outbreaks have consecutively occurred this month at a laying hen farm in Sangju, Gyeongbuk; a meat duck farm in Yeongnam, Jeonnam; a laying hen farm in Yeoju, Gyeonggi; and a quail farm in Eumseong, Chungbuk. On the 9th, it was confirmed at a meat duck farm in Naju, Jeonnam. On the 11th, a suspected case of highly pathogenic AI was detected at a meat duck farm (with about 17,000 birds) in Jeongeup, Jeonbuk.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.