Expert: "If no action is taken, 1,000 cases confirmed in 1-2 weeks... Please listen to field opinions"

On the 20th, amid growing concerns about the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) around the university area in Sinchon, students and citizens are passing by a notice prohibiting entry to outsiders installed in front of Yonsei University in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] A group of domestic infectious disease experts recently assessed the situation of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and stated that "there is a high possibility of further deterioration." They predicted that if effective measures are not taken amid the relentless spread, the number of new daily confirmed cases could increase to nearly 1,000 within 1 to 2 weeks. They requested the authorities to proactively raise the level of response and to pay closer attention to the opinions of frontline quarantine workers and experts during the policy decision-making process.

On the 20th, ten academic organizations composed of infectious disease experts, including the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases, issued a statement making these claims. The organizations said, "As we enter late autumn, the risk of COVID-19 transmission has increased," adding, "Recent social distancing measures have been revised to more relaxed standards compared to before, inevitably increasing the risk of transmission."

Based on recent analysis by the Korean Society of Epidemiology, one of the organizations participating in the statement, the effective reproduction number has exceeded 1.5 (meaning one patient infects 1.5 others). They stated, "Without effective measures, the daily number of confirmed cases is predicted to approach 1,000 within 1 to 2 weeks." The organizations reported that sporadic outbreaks across the country have overwhelmed epidemiological investigation capacities in each region. This has led to an increase in patients whose epidemiological links cannot be identified, potentially causing a vicious cycle of further spread.

As new cases increase, the likelihood of harm spreading to high-risk groups such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions also rises. The organizations said, "Recent patient occurrence patterns show that the proportion of elderly patients is gradually increasing, and cases continue to emerge in places where high-risk groups gather, such as nursing facilities and hospitals," adding, "An increase in patients among high-risk groups raises the risk of severe cases, which can cause medical overload and lead to situations where patients cannot receive appropriate care."

A notice about strengthened visitor access control is posted at the Jongno Academy Gangbuk Main Branch in Mapo-gu, Seoul, 20 days before the 2021 College Scholastic Ability Test, which is 13 days away. The government is operating a special quarantine period for the CSAT until December 3, the day of the exam, to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Currently, intensive care unit (ICU) beds are just over half occupied, so the authorities consider there to be some leeway, but the organizations predict that ICU beds will be fully occupied within 1 to 2 weeks. They said, "There are significant regional differences in ICU bed availability, and some areas have already exceeded the limits of their medical resources," adding, "The influx of COVID-19 patients into medical institutions can also render existing medical resources unusable."

They emphasized the need to strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the situation from worsening. The organizations stressed, "At this point, stronger quarantine measures are necessary to maintain the same level of suppression as before," and "Quarantine measures, including raising social distancing levels, must be applied early and strongly to be effective." They warned that delaying measures would fail to suppress the outbreak and only increase additional damage, urging swift decisions.

Furthermore, they highlighted the need for closer communication with academia and experts. The organizations stated, "Accurate situational assessment and rapid decision-making processes are necessary in policy decisions related to quarantine," and "To this end, governance that reflects the opinions of frontline quarantine workers and experts must be established." Since there are no effective means other than basic quarantine rules like social distancing, they urged each citizen to participate in social distancing and maintain a sense of crisis.

The statement was jointly issued by the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases, Korean Association of Infection Control Nurses, Korean Academy of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases, Korean Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Korean Society for Preventive Medicine, Korean Society of Emergency Medicine, Korean Society for Healthcare-associated Infection Control and Prevention, Korean Society for Clinical Microbiology, Korean Society of Critical Care Medicine, Korean Society of Antimicrobial Therapy, and the Korean Society of Epidemiology.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.