US Experts: "North Korea Likely Seeks Biden's Attention Through Ballistic Missile Tests"

"Biden: COVID-19 and Domestic Economy Are Top Priorities"
"North Korea May Conduct Nuclear Test or Ballistic Missile Launch for Negotiations"

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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] U.S. North Korea experts predict that North Korea may begin experiments showcasing long-range ballistic missiles or nuclear capabilities within the coming weeks to attract attention, as President-elect Joe Biden prioritizes the COVID-19 pandemic and domestic economic recovery in his policy agenda. While the Biden administration is expected to conduct quieter diplomacy compared to the Trump administration, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities will likely elevate North Korea policy to a top priority after verification.

On the 11th (local time), Evans Revere, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, said in an interview with CNBC, "In the coming weeks, North Korea will conduct nuclear or long-range ballistic missile tests to send a strong message to the incoming U.S. administration." He added, "The Biden administration would like to prioritize domestic issues including COVID-19, but North Korea will try to force the U.S. to pay attention."

Waqas Adenwala, Asia analyst at the British economic analysis firm Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), also explained, "North Korea has often conducted various missile tests to maintain U.S. attention, which has kept North Korea issues as a major U.S. foreign policy priority." North Korea launched missiles early in the administrations of former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, which analysts say led to denuclearization talks with President Trump.

The incoming Biden administration is expected to focus first on strengthening alliances in the Asia region, unlike the Trump administration. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere said, "Former President Trump did not recognize that the U.S. Forces Korea is very beneficial to the U.S., but the Biden administration will recognize this and quickly and reasonably conclude defense cost-sharing negotiations with South Korea and other allies." He added, "Since Japan shares not only North Korea issues but also China-related concerns, trust in security relations with Japan will greatly increase."

Furthermore, unlike the Trump administration, the Biden administration’s North Korea diplomacy is expected to be more practical and less performative, learning from the failures of the Obama administration’s North Korea policy. Sharon Squassoni, professor at George Washington University, analyzed, "If North Korea eventually becomes the Biden administration’s top diplomatic priority, the administration will seek more active diplomacy than during the Obama administration, which failed with ‘strategic patience.’"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.