Gallup Advisor's Op-Ed "Don't Trust Polls"... Predicts Trump's Landslide Victory

Recent 'Biden Victory' Forecasts Criticized for Methodology and Sample Settings in Various Polls

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] Amid ongoing poll results indicating that Democratic candidate Joe Biden will win the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 3rd of next month, claims have emerged that President Donald Trump will actually succeed in his re-election.

On the 28th (local time), Christos Makridis, senior advisor at Gallup and professor at Arizona State University, along with Jonathan Jakubowski, Republican chairman of Wood County, Ohio, stated this in an op-ed titled "Don't Trust the Polls?Trump Will Win" published by the U.S. political media outlet The Hill.

They argued that although polls show Biden either winning by a large margin or receiving support similar to President Trump, Trump will actually win the upcoming election decisively. They cited issues such as the questions posed to respondents and sample settings in current polls as reasons.

Regarding the questions in polls, the two pointed out that questions containing a certain frame lead respondents to predetermined answers, and respondents tend to give socially desirable responses. This pattern was also observed in 2016, where the question "Will you vote for Trump and Vice President Pence?" was identified as socially undesirable.

They also highlighted problems with poll samples, stating that if the population composition is not accurately reflected, the margin of error cannot be trusted. They noted that respondents might self-censor due to distrust of polling organizations, which can result in inaccurate survey outcomes, and that such factors contributed to polling failures during the 2016 election.

During the 2016 election, various polls showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton leading President Trump, but Trump won. They explained that according to a Rasmussen poll, about 17% of U.S. voters who strongly support President Trump are unlikely to disclose their candidate preference to others in this election.

Furthermore, they emphasized that recent voter registrations among Republican supporters will work in favor of President Trump. For example, in Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states, in May, there were 803,427 more registered Democratic voters, but by October, that gap had narrowed to 700,853. They added that since the 2016 election, among newly registered voters, Republican supporters outnumbered Democratic supporters by seven times.

The two noted that specific news at certain times can influence voters, especially in battleground states, and stated that recent reports related to the "Ukraine scandal," presumed to be emails from Biden’s son Hunter Biden, came at "an appropriate time" for President Trump.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.