The 5th Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee to Open on the 26th... Dual Circulation Promotion Likely

Outline of China's Economic Blueprint Until 2025
Considering US-China Conflicts, Specific Economic Target Figures May Not Be Presented

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] The world's attention is focused on the '19th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session of the Communist Party,' which will finalize China's economic development plan for the next five years.

The greatest interest lies in the goals of the '14th Five-Year Plan (2021?2025)' for economic development. Additionally, the medium- to long-term economic plan through 2035 will also be decided at the Fifth Plenary Session. This plenary session serves as a kind of blueprint to gauge the direction and approach the Chinese leadership will take in guiding China's economy going forward.

In particular, considering the conflict structure with the United States, it is widely expected that the plan will be formulated accordingly, which is anticipated to have a considerable impact on the South Korean economy as well.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to Chinese state media such as the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency on the 23rd, the Communist Party of China will hold the Fifth Plenary Session for four days starting from the 26th.

Prior to the plenary session, Chinese media reported that President Xi Jinping attended a Politburo Standing Committee meeting and evaluated that "the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016?2020) has proceeded smoothly, and the main goals have been generally achieved."

President Xi self-assessed that "with the development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China was able to leap to a new stage," and added, "We have continued to optimize the economic structure and made significant breakthroughs in the comprehensive deepening of reform and opening-up."

At the meeting, the Standing Committee emphasized that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China is entering a new development stage aiming to become a 'socialist modernized country,' and that it must vigorously promote a new 'dual circulation development' model, with domestic 'major circulation' as the main body, while domestic and international circulations promote each other's development.

Dual circulation is a term first used by President Xi at the Politburo Standing Committee meeting in May and has been continuously mentioned by the Chinese leadership since. The dual circulation development model is essentially the core keyword of this Fifth Plenary Session. The Chinese leadership's idea is to shift the economic development model from manufacturing and exports to domestic demand to drive economic growth.

Ultimately, dual circulation reflects the intention to prepare for a prolonged US-China conflict. It is based on the belief that if economic pressure from the US and other Western countries intensifies, the economy can be sustained sufficiently by domestic demand alone.

The People's Daily emphasized, "The superiority of the Communist Party of China's leadership and the excellence of the Chinese socialist system were well demonstrated in the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan," and added, "Stronger political strength is needed to embark on a new journey to build a socialist modern country."

It further stated, "Focus must be placed on the 14th Five-Year Plan to lead the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and concentrate on the new century," and added, "Domestic major circulation (dual circulation) must be the main body to take steps toward building a socialist modern country."

Ahead of the Fifth Plenary Session, some speculate that the Chinese leadership may not disclose specific economic targets or figures. Given the unclear timing for overcoming the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the inevitable economic shocks due to the intensifying conflict with the United States, it is possible that only policy directions will be presented rather than concrete numbers.

A source in Beijing said, "Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, no growth targets were specified at this year's Two Sessions," and added, "The Chinese leadership may present only the big picture rather than specific figures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.