New ICBM and SLBM Targeting Surprise Attacks

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea's unveiling of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) at the 75th anniversary parade of the Workers' Party is interpreted as a signal to strengthen surprise attacks that evade the U.S. missile defense system. This also explains the significant performance upgrades of the mobile launchers (TELs), which are not restricted by time or location, and the SLBMs mounted on submarines.

In the parade footage broadcast by North Korea's Korean Central TV, the wheels of the new ICBM's TEL vehicle were identified as having 11 axles and 22 wheels. Considering that the TEL for the ICBM 'Hwasong-15' launched in November 2017 had 9 axles and 18 wheels, the number of axles has increased by two. The increase in the number of wheels and the lengthening of the TEL indicate that the missile's weight has grown. Within military circles, there is a strong possibility that the new ICBM unveiled by North Korea is an evolved version of the Hwasong-15, effectively the 'Hwasong-16 (KN-27)'. The Hwasong-15 is 21 meters long. The new ICBM is estimated to be about 2 to 3 meters longer than the Hwasong-15.

The rear of the new ICBM features a square-shaped support frame, which appears to be a brace used to vertically erect the missile on the TEL for launch. The Hwasong-15 used a support frame erected at a distance from the TEL for launch. There is speculation that the newly identified support frame may be installed attached directly to the TEL for launch. Since erecting a ground support frame like the Hwasong-15 causes delays, this new method is evaluated as enhancing rapid launch capability to preemptively prevent strikes before launch. North Korea is expected to significantly increase TEL production to prevent South Korea-U.S. reconnaissance assets from detecting launch signs in the future.

Some analysts suggest that the increased diameter of the new ICBM is due to major changes in the first and second stage propulsion engines. The Hwasong-15 mounted two Baekdusan engines, used in the Hwasong-14, on the first stage and 4 to 6 auxiliary engines on the second stage. However, the new ICBM's first stage is equipped with four engines, and the second stage uses a new engine that burned for seven minutes in two tests conducted last December, which explains the increased diameter.

The warhead section has also been upgraded. Unlike the round and blunt warhead of the Hwasong-15, the new ICBM's warhead resembles the U.S. ICBM 'Minuteman-3'. It is reported that a Post Boost Vehicle (PBV), known as a post-propulsion unit, has been identified on this warhead. The PBV is an essential technology for developing multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) ICBMs and can evade interception.

The new SLBM 'Pukguksong-4A' revealed by North Korea has increased diameter due to more warheads but reduced size and weight. The diameter of the Pukguksong-4A is analyzed to be 2 to 3 times that of the Pukguksong-1 and 1.5 times thicker than the Pukguksong-3. However, it is made of carbon fiber to lighten the body, and its range is expected to be longer than that of the Pukguksong-3. The Pukguksong-4A appears to have benchmarked the development process of China's SLBM 'Julang (Giant Wave, JL)-2' and is likely to be mounted on a new submarine currently under construction. North Korea is known to be building submarines in the 3,000-ton class or 4,000 to 5,000-ton class.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "North Korea has showcased strategic weapons capable of surprise attacks and striking multiple targets by unveiling new ICBMs and SLBMs designed with multiple warheads in mind."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.