New Daily Cases Decrease After Surpassing 20,000... 'Surprise' Effect or Optical Illusion?

Only on the weekend when the effects of enhanced social distancing are proven will a concrete judgment be possible

A view of the COVID-19 Safe Clinic inside the Nuclear Hospital in Nowon-gu, Seoul, on the 1st, as the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) surpassed 20,000. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] The cumulative number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in South Korea has recently surged by about 5,000 over the past 17 days, surpassing 20,000 (20,182) as of the 1st. Compared to late last month when 300 to 400 new cases were reported daily, the number of daily confirmed cases has slightly decreased to the 200s over the past three days, showing signs of the rapid increase easing. The government and health authorities remain cautious, uncertain whether this is the 'surprise' effect of the nationwide elevation to social distancing level 2 on the 23rd of last month, or a 'visual illusion' caused by a decrease in the number of diagnostic tests. They expect that a concrete judgment will be possible only by this weekend, when the results of the enhanced distancing measures can be verified.

Confirmed Cases Decrease from Sunday to Tuesday, Increase from Wednesday to Saturday
5412 Cases from Cluster Infections Triggered by Religious Facilities, No Room for Complacency

So far, the number of new COVID-19 cases in South Korea has generally decreased from Sunday to Tuesday and increased from Wednesday to Saturday. This pattern is related to the number of diagnostic tests, as testing is concentrated on weekdays and relatively decreases on weekends. In fact, as of midnight on this day, the number of new confirmed cases was 235, down 13 from the previous day (248), marking a three-day consecutive decrease in the 200s since Sunday, the 30th of last month (299).

During this period, the number of tests also dropped by more than 30%, from 21,612 to 14,841 and then to 13,519. In late last month, the number of tests was 15,386 and 13,236 on the 23rd and 24th, respectively, but increased to 23,669 on the 26th, a weekday, and the next day the number of confirmed cases soared to 441. The number of diagnostic tests recorded on this day was 21,391, returning to the 20,000 range. Whether the number of new confirmed cases increases or decreases from Wednesday, the 2nd, will more clearly reveal the correlation between testing volume and daily case occurrence.

Even if new confirmed cases decrease relative to the number of tests, it is not a situation to be relieved. This is because 5,412 cases occurred over 19 days starting from the 14th of last month due to cluster infections triggered at metropolitan religious facilities such as Sarang Jeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, and Uri Jeil Church in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province. This accounts for nearly 27% of the cumulative confirmed cases infected over about seven months since the first patient was reported in the country on January 20. Jeong Eun-kyeong, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said at a briefing held the day before, "The increase in confirmed cases has progressed faster than the authorities had aimed," adding, "Our goal is to suppress the outbreak as much as possible to a level manageable by quarantine and medical response capabilities."

Weekend Traffic Volume Decrease... Turning Point for 'Stop' Effect

It has been identified that the public's self-restraint from going out due to elevated distancing measures and concerns over rapid transmission from the surge in confirmed cases has had some effect. According to the Korea Expressway Corporation's regional vehicle usage statistics, excluding Jeju, the nationwide traffic volume on the last weekend of August, the 29th and 30th, recorded 3.15 million and 2.63 million vehicles, respectively. This is a decrease of 150,000 vehicles each compared to the previous weekend. According to recent mobile phone movement analysis results announced by the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters on this day, the movement volume in the metropolitan area from August 23 to 27 decreased by about 12% compared to before the implementation of distancing measures.

In the metropolitan area, from the 30th of last month to the 6th of this month, restaurants, cafes, academies, and indoor sports facilities must follow the 'social distancing level 2.5' guidelines that restrict operations. To confirm the effect of these measures, the trend must be observed for at least a week. The government and health authorities view this weekend or early next week as a turning point for judging the spread of infection.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Accident Response Headquarters' quarantine team, said, "Depending on how many confirmed cases come out today and tomorrow (the 2nd), we will be able to determine whether the social distancing measures centered on the metropolitan area are effectively progressing," emphasizing, "The coming week is the last line of defense to prevent a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak and to regain our daily lives."

He added, "We will comprehensively analyze indicators that can confirm the control of the quarantine network, such as maintaining the decrease in new confirmed cases, reducing the proportion of patients with unknown infection routes, and decreasing cluster infections, to decide whether to maintain or ease level 2.5, or escalate to level 3."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.