COVID Surge: Entering 'Social Distancing Level 3'... Lessons from Other Countries

Prime Minister Jeong: "Social Distancing Level 3 Will Cause Severe Impact on Livelihood and Economy"
Europe, Which Implemented Lockdown Policies in Q2
GDP Declined Over 10%, More Than Half of Jobs Affected
Reduced Medical Services Increased Mortality Among General Patients
European Politicians: "Lockdown Is a 'Nuclear Deterrent'... Should Never Be Used"

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun announced measures to strengthen quarantine against the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), which has reached a crossroads of the second wave, at the joint briefing room of the Government Seoul Office Building on the afternoon of the 18th. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] With the surge in novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19), attention is focused on whether to transition to social distancing Level 3. For now, the government is explaining that Level 3 measures could shake the entire economy, and is exercising caution. In fact, European countries that have implemented measures at this level are experiencing the worst economic recession and unemployment crisis in decades as aftereffects.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 20th, there were 288 new cases, bringing the total cumulative cases to 16,346. Local infections accounted for 276 cases. The number of new local infection cases has remained in the 200s for three consecutive days.

From the 14th for one week, the total confirmed cases were 1,576. Local infection cases continue to emerge in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. Seoul alone reported 135 confirmed cases, and 81 were confirmed in Gyeonggi Province. Incheon also reported 10 confirmed cases.

In particular, the average daily local infection cases over the past two weeks soared to 101.9, meeting one of the criteria for raising social distancing to Level 3, which is an average of 100 cases per day over two weeks. As a result, opinions are emerging that Level 3 should be implemented immediately to prevent a COVID-19 surge.

However, the government is cautious, concerned about economic growth slowdown. Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun stated in his opening remarks at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters meeting held at the Government Seoul Office on the 19th, "Some suggest raising social distancing to Level 3, but the current situation does not meet the Level 3 criteria."

Prime Minister Chung emphasized, "If raised to Level 3, gatherings of more than 10 people would be banned, causing tremendous shock to citizens' lives and the economy of ordinary people. The urgent task now is to curb the spread so that the situation does not escalate to Level 3."

The scene at Milan Square, Italy, where a lockdown was imposed last May. A restaurant owner is dining alone in the empty square. / Photo by Yonhap News

◆ Level 3 Measures Essentially a 'Lockdown' Policy, Economic Activity Slowdown Inevitable

The highest level of social distancing, Level 3, is called a 'lockdown' policy in countries like the U.S. and Europe. Key measures include △banning gatherings of more than 10 people △suspending operations from high-risk to medium-risk facilities △restricting in-person classes and switching to remote learning △halting professional sports games △requiring all public institutions and companies to have all employees except essential personnel work from home.

Industries such as food service and retail, where many people inevitably gather, are temporarily suspended, and as the proportion of telecommuting sharply increases, public transportation operations also significantly decrease. Essentially, almost all economic activities except essential industries like healthcare and some public sectors are effectively locked down.

Although nationwide lockdown policies have not yet been implemented in Korea, European countries such as Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain experienced lockdowns during the second quarter (April to June). All countries that issued lockdown orders experienced serious side effects without exception.

◆ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Declined at the Worst Rate in Decades

Lockdown policies varied in detail by country. For example, when France's lockdown was at its strictest, leaving home was prohibited except for essential purposes such as grocery shopping, commuting, and medical treatment. In contrast, the UK allowed one hour per day for free walking or exercise, and its lockdown decision was later than other European countries.

However, GDP growth rates in all countries recorded the worst levels in decades. The average GDP growth rate for Eurozone countries using the euro as a common currency in the second quarter was -12.1%. By individual countries, Spain (-18.5%), Portugal (-14.1%), France (-13.8%), Italy (-12.4%), and Germany (-10.1%) ranked in order.

In the UK, because the lockdown policy was implemented later and ended later than in other countries, the growth rate during the same period was -20.4%, the lowest recorded. However, GDP rebounded fastest with an 8.7% increase in June alone.

A homeless person is resting in front of a luxury goods store in Paris last April when a lockdown was imposed in France. / Photo by Yonhap News

◆ More Than Half of Jobs at Risk

As the economic situation rapidly deteriorated, jobs were also threatened. According to data from the European Trade Union Confederation, a labor union organization of the European Union (EU), as of the 10th (local time), 45 million Europeans remain on temporary leave.

During the lockdown period, the number of private-sector workers notified of temporary leave reached up to more than half of all jobs depending on the country. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), during this period, 55% of private-sector jobs in France were on temporary leave. Other major European countries such as Italy (45%) and Germany (25%) also had massive populations effectively facing job loss risks.

Given this situation, European governments implemented subsidy policies where the government pays wages for workers on leave instead of companies as an extreme measure. As a result, mass unemployment was temporarily prevented, but government finances deteriorated rapidly as it paid the salaries of millions of workers.

Eventually, major EU countries like Germany and France are reducing the scale of subsidy policies by cutting government wage support payments. The UK plans to abolish the subsidy policy in October. Accordingly, European unemployment rates are expected to gradually increase again.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Lockdowns May Increase Deaths... 'Excess Mortality' Side Effects

Research results have also shown that lockdown policies increased the number of deaths. During lockdowns, medical activities related to COVID-19 prevention continued, but cancer treatment, emergency care, and nursing services were temporarily suspended, increasing mortality among general patients who could not receive timely treatment or care. This is called 'excess mortality.'

On the 8th, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that from the end of March to May, when lockdown was implemented in the UK, 38,500 excess deaths occurred.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths exceeding the usual baseline during a certain period. It is used to estimate deaths from complications, sequelae, or untested cases not captured in official statistics during an infectious disease outbreak.

According to UK government analysis, about 41% of these excess deaths, approximately 16,000 people, were general patients who died due to the suspension of medical support unrelated to COVID-19. Among them, 6,000 died because they did not receive emergency treatment in time. The lockdown policy, implemented to protect lives from COVID-19, ironically caused vulnerable populations to die.

Because of this, voices in Europe say nationwide lockdown policies should be "chosen only in extreme situations." French Prime Minister Jean Castex said in a media interview on the 20th of last month, "Socially and economically, we cannot survive generalized lockdowns," adding, "Lockdowns should remain a kind of 'nuclear deterrent.' They should be used in the worst situations but never desired."

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also emphasized on the 2nd that the possibility of a second lockdown is an "extreme option" and stressed, "We must devise measures to avoid lockdown at all costs."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.