Rapid Decline in Student Numbers... Ministry of Education Develops New Teacher Supply and Demand Model

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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] The Ministry of Education will develop a new teacher supply and demand forecasting model called 'K-Education Leading Model (tentative name)' by next year. It will be applied as early as the 2022 teacher supply and demand plan.

Considering the faster-than-expected decline in the number of elementary school students, the Ministry of Education reduced the scale of public elementary school teacher recruitment in 2021 by 100 compared to the announcement in 2018. The projected number of elementary school students in 2030 was 2.26 million in 2018, but the 2019 forecast lowered it to 1.72 million. Although there is some reduction, if teachers are replenished next year, the student-to-teacher ratio will enter the 15-student range per teacher. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the average student-to-teacher ratio is 15.2 for elementary students, 13.3 for middle school students, and 13.4 for high school students.

The government plans to completely rebuild the teacher supply and demand forecasting model on this occasion. Due to the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is necessary to establish a new teacher supply system to calculate the appropriate number of students per class for continuous school quarantine, resolve overcrowded classes, and introduce systems such as the high school credit system, elementary school safe grade system, and basic academic achievement guarantee. The Ministry of Education has decided to finalize the plan by next year through consultations with metropolitan and provincial offices of education, teacher organizations, and related ministries.

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