[Interview] "No Risk of US-China Phase One Trade Deal Breaking... Trump's Greatest Achievement"

Top Chinese Scholar in the US David Lampton, Stanford Fellow
"Xi Jinping Will Be Aware of Internal Critics... Authority Won't Be Easily Shaken"
"US-China Conflict Negatively Affects North Korea-US Relations"
"South Korea Should Align with US Position"

David Lambton, Stanford University Fellow

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] David Lampton, a fellow at Stanford University's Asia-Pacific Research Center and regarded as the top China expert in the United States, recently asserted, "There will be no collapse of the US-China Phase One trade negotiations." His prediction proved accurate. Peter Navarro, Director of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, caused significant confusion on the 22nd (local time) by stating that the US-China Phase One trade agreement had been scrapped, but he later retracted his statement, calling it incorrect. Subsequently, President Donald Trump intervened via Twitter to clarify that the Phase One trade agreement remains intact.

Lampton responded to an email interview with Asia Economy on the 19th. At that time, he was already confident that although the US was escalating trade tensions with China, it would not take decisive action. Lampton was ranked as the number one China expert in the US by the China Foreign Affairs University in 2015.

In the interview, he explained the low likelihood of the US-China trade agreement being terminated by stating it is "President Trump's only achievement." It is the result of his tough stance on China, which influenced his election. From Chinese President Xi Jinping's perspective, Lampton explained, "Due to concerns about economic slowdown and internal criticism of domestic and foreign policies, Xi would be reluctant to see the Phase One trade agreement collapse."

Regarding the US Treasury bond sales that China is reportedly considering as a retaliatory measure, Lampton judged it to be practically an unfeasible action. He said, "If China were to sell off large amounts of US Treasury bonds, it would significantly devalue its own assets and destabilize the global financial system," assessing that it would likely be a self-defeating move for China.

However, Lampton predicted that normalization of bilateral relations would be difficult to expect before the US presidential election. He also expressed a low possibility of significant change even after the election. Diagnosing the current state of US-China relations as the worst since President Richard Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972, he said, "Ahead of the US election, both the Republican and Democratic parties share a consensus that relations with China are problematic." He added, "Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will also try not to appear weak on China," suggesting that a precarious situation could unfold until the election.

Therefore, he shook his head at forecasts that the US strategy toward China would change significantly after the election. He said, "Positive and sustainable change is only possible if the politics of both countries change," adding, "Even if there is a change in the US administration, concerns will not disappear unless China's domestic and foreign policies fundamentally change." He also predicted that President Xi's authority would remain unshaken.

He stated, "The Chinese Communist Party has maintained a relationship where it provides growth, welfare, and national dignity to the people, and the people comply with the Party," adding, "Moreover, the Party currently possesses new technologies to monitor the populace." However, he advised, "As Premier Li Keqiang recently suggested at the National People's Congress, the re-ignition of China's economic reforms must proceed in the right direction. If China changes, the US should actively respond."

The US-China conflict also affects the Korean Peninsula. He expressed concern that it would negatively impact North Korea-US relations. Lampton said, "Deterioration in US-China relations could give North Korea more room to do what it wants," adding, "If North Korea realizes that China cannot do anything, it will adopt a hardline stance toward South Korea and the US and continue to hold the confrontation card against the US." He evaluated that this means North Korea will continue developing all kinds of military capabilities. This implies that worsening US-China relations could become an obstacle to North Korean denuclearization negotiations.

He also expressed concern about the possibility that the damage from the bilateral conflict could spread worldwide. However, he simultaneously revealed that the US needs support from its allies. He said, "To maintain the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, US military presence in the region is necessary." He continued, "If US military power disappears from the region, China will not feel threatened and will easily dominate neighboring countries. In supporting the balance of power, South Korea should promote such conditions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.