President Moon's Struggles in North Korea-US-China Mediation... Did Kim Jong-un Read Bolton's Memoir?

Kim Jong-un Orders Sudden Suspension of Military Actions Against South
Removal of Loudspeakers Targeting South and Mass Deletion of Critical Articles
Unstoppable Tension Escalation, Disadvantageous Even for North Korea

President Moon Jae-in is having a phone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an at the Cheong Wa Dae Yeomin Building on the afternoon of the 23rd.

Despite the worsening situation in inter-Korean relations, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, who had remained out of sight, finally appeared and abruptly suspended the anticipated military actions. As inter-Korean relations, which were on the brink of military conflict, enter a phase of pause, attention is focused on whether this could lead to a dramatic turnaround. However, North Korea also emphasized that it discussed a 'war deterrence' document, delivering a pressure message seemingly aimed at the United States rather than South Korea.

First, Kim’s decision to 'suspend' this time is being evaluated as a potential turning point that could open a way out for the drifting inter-Korean relations. Professor Im Eul-chul of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Gyeongnam National University said on the 24th, "Since Kim Jong-un personally ordered the suspension, it appears that North Korea will slow down its military actions against the South for now." This means that the worst-case scenario of escalating military tensions along the border area between the two Koreas has been averted for the time being.

The cover of former National Security Advisor John Bolton's memoir "The Room Where It Happened," photographed on the 18th (local time) with the White House in the background.

Considering that North Korea had intensified its verbal attacks against South Korea following Kim Yo-jong’s statement, Kim Jong-un’s decision to suspend is highly unusual both in timing and content. Opinions have been raised that this is not unrelated to the South Korean government’s swift and firm management of messages toward North Korea and the controversy surrounding former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) advisor John Bolton’s memoir.

Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed, "Bolton’s memoir revealed that South Korea made considerable efforts behind the scenes to overcome bureaucratic resistance within the U.S. and played a significant role in facilitating North Korea-U.S. dialogue. From North Korea’s perspective, amid the uncertainty of North Korea-U.S. negotiations, this may have been an opportunity to reassess South Korea’s potential role and the role of inter-Korean relations."

President Moon Jae-in is seen embracing Chairman Kim Jong-un, who is returning to Pyongyang, after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (right) at Panmunjom on the afternoon of June 30 last year.

Moreover, with the 'economic front' positioned as the forefront of the direct breakthrough strategy, there is also an opinion that unlimited escalation of tensions is not beneficial even internally within North Korea. Professor Yang Moo-jin of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies explained, "They judged that military actions leading to armed conflict would not be advantageous to themselves," adding, "They seem to be concerned that if South Korea-U.S. military exercises resume, they themselves will become exhausted."

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Gyeongnam National University also analyzed, "North Korea itself is entering a pause and adjusting the level of tension internally," and "Given that they are focusing on an economic-centered direct breakthrough, they likely thought that excessively escalating external tensions and moving toward a crisis situation would not be positive."

North Korea’s move to dismantle the loudspeaker broadcasting facilities aimed at South Korea, which had been reinstalled in the frontline area just three days ago, is also seen as part of this. This appears to be a follow-up measure following Kim Jong-un’s order to suspend military actions against the South. Additionally, the planned distribution of 12 million leaflets targeting South Korea is also expected to be suspended for now, as this matter requires ratification by the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party presided over by Kim Jong-un.

However, since Kim Jong-un did not decide to nullify or cancel the military measures, future responses have become even more critical. Professor Yang said, "(North Korea’s announcement this time) is a suspension of the military action plan, not a complete cancellation," and added, "The government needs to continuously monitor changes in the situation."

It cannot be ruled out that there were behind-the-scenes contacts between the two Koreas amid the worsening inter-Korean relations. Although North Korea had previously declared it would sever all dialogue channels with South Korea, it was confirmed as a 'breach of etiquette' by North Korea that the 'special envoy card' of National Security Office Director Jeong Ui-yong and National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon was delivered to the North through an undisclosed inter-Korean channel afterward.

On June 30 last year, President Moon Jae-in, Chairman Kim Jong-un, and President Trump are talking in front of the Freedom House on the South Korean side of Panmunjom.

Furthermore, through this Central Military Commission meeting, North Korea clearly showed that it is mindful of its relations with the United States even amid its offensive posture toward South Korea. Professor Jeong Dae-jin of Ajou University diagnosed, "The Central Military Commission, presided over directly by Kim Jong-un, oversees military strategy and policy, and recently it has been emphasizing war deterrence more strongly. This preliminary meeting of the Central Military Commission also shows that North Korea’s target is the United States."

It is also noteworthy that the term 'nuclear war deterrence' (used in the May Central Military Commission) was softened to 'war deterrence' in this meeting. Director Hong analyzed, "This suggests a tonal shift toward risk management rather than unilaterally raising tensions and risk levels against the United States."

At the same time, the intention to wait and see the U.S. response remains. Professor Jeong emphasized, "By raising war deterrence, North Korea has left open the possibility of further discussion and implementation of war deterrence measures, including strategic provocations such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), depending on the resumption of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in August, at the level of the Central Military Commission."

He added, "This can be interpreted as meaning that there should be an equivalent reciprocal card, such as the 'suspension' of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises," emphasizing, "Close information sharing and preparation of response strategies between South Korea and the U.S. have become urgent."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.