Morgan Stanley: "Asia Unlikely to Face Double-Dip Recession Due to COVID-19"

Asia Expected to Grow 8.5% Next Year After 0.1% Growth This Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Regarding the increase in confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) across Asia, including Korea and China, it is forecasted that the impact on the economic recovery phase will be limited. The so-called 'Double Dip' recession fear raised by some is considered unfounded.

On the 16th (local time), Day Tan, a Morgan Stanley economist, appeared on CNBC and stated, "Even if a second wave of COVID-19 occurs in Asia, policymakers have learned how to respond to the situation, making it more manageable than before," adding, "There is no double dip in Morgan Stanley's forecast model." He also mentioned, "What is certain is that when economic activities resume, new confirmed cases will increase."

Economist Tan referred to cases in Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, where COVID-19 containment measures were eased after April, saying, "Although new confirmed cases showed an increasing trend, the overall flow is relatively manageable compared to what we saw previously." He continued, "At this point, we do not expect a second wave of COVID-19 to lead the global or Asian economies toward a double dip."

Morgan Stanley expects the recovery in Asian regions, excluding Japan, to be faster than in other regions. Economist Tan assessed, "China, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong were able to control the situation relatively early due to efficient responses."

Morgan Stanley forecasts that Asia, excluding Japan, will grow by 0.1% this year and by 8.5% next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.