[Jeon Youngsoo's Population Prism] Demographic Complainants Born from Division of Labor Fatigue

Population is a constant (常數). It is not fixed and is always in motion, making it difficult to clearly match cause and effect. This is why pinpointing the cause of low birth rates in a single phrase is challenging. Various factors intertwine and mutually influence each other, resulting in overall changes. Nevertheless, the influence is vast. It governs decision-making throughout daily life, like clothes gradually getting wet in a drizzle. It serves as a vector encompassing the direction and sensitivity of future society. For this reason, the analysis of the process and structure of population change is recommended to adopt a dynamic and cyclical approach, based on the existence and function of complex interconnections that can change at any time.

Because there are so many influencing variables, the economic assumption that other conditions remain constant (Ceteris Paribus) is difficult to apply. Estimation is safer and more valid than fixed conclusions. Even regarding new customer demands arising from population changes, there is no clear answer. This is because the flow of 'population change → customer change → market change → business change' involves numerous considerations. The more so, cautious estimation and diverse experiments are necessary. Among new consumption trends, none are unrelated to population changes. Whether many or few, they are connected and explained. At this time, the priority lies more in a macro approach than in microanalysis. The massive paradigm shift that permeates the entire society inevitably encompasses customer, market, and business changes driven by population change.

Expansion of Advanced Division of Labor in AI, IoT, etc.
Elimination of Humanity, Decline of Multifunctional Creativity

Population is a key variable in the economy. As the main agents of production and consumption, this is natural. Capitalist economics has offered many interpretations of population increase or decrease. While some, like Thomas Malthus and John Stuart Mill, viewed population growth as leading to recession and crisis, others like Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes saw it as the foundation for national power and welfare enhancement. In any case, population growth has indeed driven economic growth. Although there are many side effects, it contributed to quantitative expansion. The division of labor system, a mode of production, played a role here. The concept of division of labor completed capitalism. While perfect competition and private property designed it, the realization of division of labor and marginal utility colored and enhanced the completeness of capitalism. Division of labor decomposed in detail according to population growth, thereby raising productivity.

What about the future? Division of labor will deepen. Tasks will be broken down, and specific skills will be valued over general talents. Both work environments and daily life will be dominated by division of labor. Negotiating value without specialization or expertise will become impossible. The Fourth Industrial Revolution accelerates this. The entire industry is expected to undergo revolutionary paradigm reorganization beyond imagination through advanced and precise development. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, and Cloud Computing lead the new order of division of labor by hyper-connecting and hyper-intelligentizing existing industries. They impact more broadly (Scope), faster (Velocity), and greater (Impact) than the previous three industrial revolutions. The emergence of the 'zero marginal cost society,' as Jeremy Rifkin described, accelerates 21st-century advanced division of labor within growth-oriented capitalism.

Professor Jeon Young-su, Graduate School of International Studies, Hanyang University

The Fourth Industrial Revolution reexamines 'people.' As production and consumption order shifts from 'labor-centered → technology-centered,' division of labor may deepen. Classical labor input in production sites decreases. Simple labor is replaced by machines. This is a warning of job disappearance. Does this mean population decline is welcome? Would it be good if labor decreases as much as employment? This is a difficult debate. Quality is more important than quantity, and content is more decisive than numbers. Except for service sectors requiring uniquely human senses and warmth, jobs will decrease. Otherwise, only specialized roles within division of labor survive. To compete with machines working 24/7, detailed advanced division of labor is the trend. The era of a single person doing everything is over. High value-added creative talents are needed but demand is limited. In short, the era of advanced division of labor begins.

Almost all division of labor will be certain with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The trend of strengthening division of labor value is firm. This is because the cost-effectiveness of low-cost, high-efficiency division of labor is solid. Originally, the division of labor system is closely related to population changes. Population growth and economic growth formed a virtuous cycle, strengthening and developing the division of labor system. By increasing unit productivity through simple and repetitive tasks, employment was secured and demand increased. The flow is 'population growth → demand expansion → division of labor spread → employment increase → production increase → advanced growth.' Division of labor played a major role in supporting the increased population. Of course, side effects also occurred. Like machine parts or fragments, only specific processes or tasks were repeated, eliminating humanity. The infinite repetition of labor without humans increased skill but diminished multifunctional creativity. Nevertheless, division of labor is the future trend. The proven power of division of labor is not easily removed.

Division of labor extends beyond industrial sites to society as a whole. A representative example is the division of labor system in family roles and intergenerational support. In summary, it is the division of labor structure of family roles. Roles were divided by gender and age to manage household economy. The establishment of 'family roles = division of labor structure.' This is no longer the case. Because the family composition paradigm has changed. There is a trend of rejecting or abandoning the division of labor system according to family composition. Even though it is a life path that subsequent generations should naturally follow, they actively resist and rebel. The shift from 'high growth → low growth' has undermined the explanatory power of family division of labor. The life cycle connecting 'university → employment → marriage → childbirth → promotion' has collapsed. In alternative models for subsequent generations, family has little place. Even if married, childbirth is separate. Pursuit of happiness comes before role division. Thus, family division of labor becomes sparse.

Expansion Beyond Industry to Society at Large
Abandonment of 'Family Role = Division of Labor Structure' System
But One Cannot Handle Everything Alone
Emergence of 'Proxy Demand' New Market Due to Division of Labor Resistance
Precise Diagnosis of New Customer Demand Changes Is Important

Nevertheless, life must be lived. To live joyfully rather than just being born, strategy is essential. At work, one is a fragmented division of labor cell, and at home, there may be no division of labor target, but one cannot handle everything alone. This concern applies not only to subsequent generations but also to single-person households and singles living alone. In other words, new living demands that cover the abandonment of division of labor will inevitably grow. It is a search for alternatives against division of labor. The vast majority of changed new customers are condensed as new demand expressers to replace the fatigue and resistance of the division of labor system. If one wants to do something but cannot do it alone or finds it difficult alone, it inevitably becomes a promising business model. This is the emergence of a new market born from resistance to division of labor. The 'proxy market,' which substitutes for the fragmented personal living demands, is representative. It is the need for something to do it instead or together.

The new market is premised on new customers. The market cannot remain the same when the population (=customers) changes. Market reorganization is natural, especially in turbulent times when both the size and tendencies of the population change. The key is a precise diagnosis of population changes that will lead the new market. In this regard, analyzing lifestyle changes stemming from deepening division of labor is important. Changes in new customer demands such as economic power and values are directly linked to individual consumption. Changed life models also leave traces in various aspects of new consumption. Again, it is summarized as a powerful trend of 'division of labor life.'

There are many new demand points created because of or thanks to division of labor. The opening signal of the division of labor era intertwined with the Fourth Industrial Revolution means the grand opening of the proxy demand new market.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.