Who Will Win the Battery 'Hegemony War' Among Korea, China, and Japan?

[Asia Economy Reporter Park So-yeon]Although LG Chem is the number one player in the electric vehicle battery market this year, an analysis suggests that it will lose the lead to Chinese companies in 10 years.

SNE Research presented its outlook on the electric vehicle battery market at the 'Next Generation Secondary Battery Seminar (NGBS) 2020.'

The global battery supply this year is expected to be 434 GWh (gigawatt-hours), about 100 GWh more than last year (340 GWh), but it has been revised downward from the initial forecast of 507 GWh.

This year, the global number one supplier is expected to be LG Chem, supplying 62 GWh. The total supply volume of the three Korean battery companies, including Samsung SDI and SK Innovation, is estimated at 98 GWh.

Next year, the global battery supply is expected to recover growth, reaching 635 GWh.

By 2030, the total supply is projected to reach 2,985 GWh, about seven times this year's volume.

In particular, the combined supply volume of the three Korean battery companies is expected to increase about tenfold to 904 GWh compared to this year. The ranking of Korean companies is expected to be LG Chem in 2nd place, SK Innovation in 4th, and Samsung SDI in 5th.

Chinese companies are also expected to grow 5.5 times by 2030, supplying 1,613 GWh, with China's CATL projected to be the number one supplier.

According to SNE Research, LG Chem batteries accounted for 27.1% of the battery usage in electric vehicles registered worldwide in the first quarter of this year.

This market share more than doubled compared to the first quarter of last year (10.7%), surpassing Panasonic (25.7%), which had held the top spot until February, for the first time since records began.

SNE Research explained, "LG Chem batteries saw a rapid increase in installation volume due to strong sales of Chinese-made Tesla Model 3, Audi E-Tron, and Renault Zoe."

This achievement is attributed to portfolio diversification and the supply impact from Tesla's Gigafactory in Shanghai (上海), China.

On the other hand, Panasonic's market share declined due to reduced supply to Tesla's U.S. factory amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese companies CATL and BYD were also hit hard by COVID-19, recording first-quarter market shares of 17.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Notably, BYD's share was about one-third of the same period last year (15.1%).

The combined first-quarter market share of the three Korean battery companies surged to 37.5%, more than double the 16.4% recorded in the same period last year.

Samsung SDI recorded 6.0%, and SK Innovation 4.5%, ranking 4th and 7th respectively.

SNE Research explained that Samsung SDI's growth was driven by strong sales from Volkswagen and BMW, while SK Innovation's growth was supported by Hyundai and Kia Motors.

However, SNE Research forecasted, "Going forward, the COVID-19 impact will hit key markets such as the U.S. and Europe, where Korean companies have major presence, while the Chinese market, where competitors are concentrated, will recover, posing challenges for the three Korean battery companies."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.