IATA "Air Travel Demand Likely to Remain Below Pre-COVID-19 Levels in 2023"

"Alternative Measures for Quarantine Must Be Prepared"

The departure hall of Terminal 1 at Incheon International Airport is quiet on the 29th, ahead of the golden holiday weekend. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Yu Je-hoon] Due to the aftermath of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic, it is analyzed that air travel demand in 2023 will still find it difficult to surpass the levels of 2019.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced on the 14th that this conclusion was reached based on an analysis assuming a basic scenario where the domestic market recovery will fully commence in the third quarter, while the international market's gradual recovery proceeds at a slow pace.

First, IATA predicted that passenger traffic measured by Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) in 2021 will decrease by 24% compared to 2019. This is about 32% lower than the 2021 passenger demand forecast that IATA made in October last year.

IATA also forecasted that it will be difficult to exceed last year's demand levels even in 2023. IATA stated, "We do not expect demand to surpass last year's levels by 2023," adding, "Although international flights will resume and the economy will recover, accelerating the growth of air travel after this year's low point, the level will still be about 10% lower than previous forecasts in 2025."

Furthermore, IATA prepared a pessimistic scenario assuming that lockdown measures will be extended until the third quarter and a second wave of COVID-19 occurs. In this case, IATA analyzed that the 2021 RPK could decrease by 34% compared to last year and by 41% compared to previous forecasts.

Meanwhile, IATA argued that alternatives to quarantine measures due to COVID-19 are necessary. Currently, most countries mandate a 14-day quarantine for overseas arrivals. According to a survey conducted by IATA in April targeting air travelers, 86% of respondents expressed concerns about quarantine during travel.

Accordingly, IATA proposed measures such as preventing movement of symptomatic individuals through fever screening and establishing government-level contact tracing systems. Alexandre de Juniac, IATA Director General, stated, "Even under the best circumstances, the crisis caused by COVID-19 will lead to significant unemployment," and added, "To protect the aviation industry, which acts as a catalyst for economic recovery, we must not worsen the situation by making travel practically impossible through quarantine measures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.