The 50% Approval Rating Wall Unbroken for 4 Years Even by DJ and YS... Internal Discipline Is the Key

[Planning-Part 2] The President's 4th Year in Office and the '50% Rule'... Future Power and Close Aide Corruption as Obstacles in the 4th Year of the Term

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] President Moon Jae-in, who will begin his fourth year in office on the 10th, is drawing attention as to whether he can overcome the 'impregnable fortress' that no one in Korean politics has ever surpassed. Previous presidents, who maintained high approval ratings in the early stages of their terms, failed to break through the '50% approval rating wall' in their fourth year. A 50% approval rating is a benchmark that allows for stable governance free from concerns of a 'lame duck.' This three-part series?'High, Medium, Low'?explores the political significance and challenges surrounding the so-called 50% approval rating rule for presidents. -Editor’s note

[Image source=Yonhap News]

"During the remainder of my term, I will devote all my efforts to overcoming national crises together with the people and turning challenges into opportunities." In his special speech on the 3rd anniversary of his inauguration on the 10th, President Moon Jae-in unveiled a blueprint for a "Korea leading the world." Only one year and ten months remain until the next presidential election. President Moon must maintain his governing strength until the end of his term to approach that vision.

The problem is that many variables remain. There is no guarantee that the ruling party’s 'favorable wind' following the 21st general election will continue. It is no coincidence that all presidents since the direct election system was introduced in 1987 failed to surpass the 50% approval rating wall in their fourth year. This serves as a warning to be cautious of the 'poisonous mushroom of corruption' that nests around power. Former Presidents Kim Dae-jung (DJ) and Kim Young-sam (YS), who led the 'mountain range' of Korean politics, experienced a decline in approval ratings toward the end of their terms due to allegations of corruption involving their sons and close aides.

Former Presidents Park Geun-hye, Lee Myung-bak, and Roh Moo-hyun also faced political crises as prosecutorial investigations into their inner circles intensified. Even with a tight surveillance network centered on the Blue House’s Office of Civil Affairs, gaps inevitably appear. A ruling party official expressed concern, saying, "If a public official dispatched to key institutions such as the Blue House causes problems, political responsibility can extend beyond the individual." This implies that if President Moon wants to achieve results in his fourth year, he must focus on internal discipline.

On the 10th, citizens at Seoul Station are watching President Moon Jae-in's special speech on the 3rd anniversary of his inauguration. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

The power shift between the 'setting sun' and the 'rising sun' intertwined with the next presidential election is also a point of interest. As the end of a president’s term approaches, not only the ruling party but also key government figures tend to shift their focus toward the so-called rising sun. This weakens the incumbent president’s political control. Sometimes, the ruling party’s presidential candidate even attacks the sitting president to differentiate politically.

Before the 1997 presidential election, Lee Hoi-chang, the New Korea Party’s candidate, officially demanded YS’s resignation from the party. At that time, a 'YS doll burning ceremony' was even held in Pohang. YS judged that Lee Hoi-chang effectively ignored the burning ceremony and eventually chose to leave the party, severing ties with the ruling party. Will this political pattern, confirmed several times in Korean political history during the final year of a president’s term, hold true this time as well?

There are also predictions that President Moon will complete his term without a lame duck period or party defection. This means that based on the ruling coalition’s 180 seats won in the 21st general election, a foundation has been laid for smooth governance during the remainder of his term. In fact, Kim Tae-nyeon, the floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea who will accompany President Moon in his fourth year, stated during his policy speech, "Even at this moment, President Moon is dedicating himself to responding to the pandemic and economic crisis with a desperate resolve not to abandon a single citizen."

On the 7th, at the '21st National Assembly Democratic Party of Korea 1st Floor Leader Election General Assembly' held at the National Assembly, Kim Tae-nyeon, who was elected as the new floor leader, is giving his acceptance speech. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Considering the personnel structure of the 21st National Assembly, where many former Blue House officials successfully entered the legislature, the prevailing view is that President Moon’s political influence will not be easily shaken. It is also unlikely that former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who is leading the ruling coalition’s presidential candidates, will take a confrontational stance against President Moon as a differentiation strategy.

Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung also experienced backlash from differentiation strategies during the last presidential primary, so the 'pro-Moon (Chin-Moon) vs. anti-Moon (Ban-Moon)' political frame must be approached with caution. Other ruling party presidential candidates cannot ignore the political reality that securing the 'pro-Moon' vote is essential to passing the party primary. This is a political environment different from that of previous presidents’ fourth years.

Professor Park Sang-chul of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University analyzed, "Unless something unusual happens, President Moon’s conclusion will be smooth. (Ruling party presidential candidates) are riding the wave of expectations for regime continuation. It does not seem to be a strategy to show differentiation and emerge as a future power. This is a different aspect compared to past presidential elections."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.