Is the 'Herd Immunity Policy' the Answer to Ending COVID-19? Three Practical Challenges

① Difficulty in 'Mass Control' of Over 30 Million People

② Possibility of Medical System Collapse

③ Long Road Ahead for Vaccine Development

On the 23rd, Jung Won-oh, Mayor of Seongdong-gu, Seoul, and quarantine officials from the district office conducted disinfection at Eungbongsan Park, where forsythia flowers were in full bloom. Although the Eungbongsan Forsythia Festival was canceled to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the district office carried out disinfection of restrooms, handrails, and other areas due to continued visits by citizens.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Dong-hoon] Can the 'Herd Immunity Policy' be a solution to end the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)? While the Central Clinical Committee has pointed to a herd immunity policy centered on young people under their 30s without underlying diseases as one solution to end COVID-19, there are increasing criticisms that it is a theoretical concept difficult to realize in reality.

Herd immunity is a method that blocks virus outbreaks by significantly increasing the proportion of people immune to the infectious disease. The approach is that if 60% of the population gains immunity, virus spread can be prevented.

The day before, the Central Clinical Committee argued for the necessity of introducing herd immunity theory, stating that 60% of the population must have immunity to COVID-19 to end the pandemic. Professor Shin Hyung-sik of the Infectious Disease Center at the National Medical Center said, "Since young people under their 30s without underlying diseases have a much lower fatality rate, if herd immunity is formed mainly among them, high-risk groups such as the elderly can be protected." Professor Shin added the premise that some control is necessary to prevent young people from transmitting the virus to the elderly or chronic patients.

Chairman Oh Myung-don of the Central Clinical Committee also said, "(Our suppression-focused) quarantine policy protects from virus exposure, so as a result, people are neither infected nor immune," adding, "Although it can be considered the best policy, inevitably, a group remains vulnerable to outbreaks until a certain level of immunity is reached." Chairman Oh pointed out that COVID-19 could resurge after school reopens on the 6th of next month or in the fall.

◆ Difficulty in 'Mass Control' of Over 30 Million People = First, for the herd immunity policy proposed by the Central Clinical Committee to succeed, collective virus exposure and control of treatment and management are necessary. Young people exposed to the virus must be managed in a way that prevents transmission to high-risk groups, such as by living collectively in specific places or buildings. However, to achieve herd immunity in 60-70% of the population, 30 to 35 million people must be controlled to form antibodies, which is difficult even for mild patients. Currently, the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in Korea are about 9,000, and quarantine authorities have experienced difficulties securing nationwide residential treatment centers and hospital beds.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters' quarantine team, also emphasized at a briefing that "Korea's population is about 50 million, and if 70% get infected, that is 35 million people. Considering the current fatality rate of 1%, (simple calculation) 350,000 people would have to die for herd immunity to form," adding, "We do not base quarantine measures on theoretical numbers."

On the morning of the 24th, medical staff wearing masks and full-body protective suits are heading to the negative pressure ward where confirmed COVID-19 patients are being treated at Daegu Dongsan Hospital, Keimyung University, Jung-gu, Daegu. [Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Possibility of Medical System Collapse = The methodology of ending COVID-19 through herd immunity also implies the possibility of medical system collapse due to a surge in patients. Therefore, it is generally considered difficult to implement this policy.

In fact, the UK government faced public backlash on the 13th after announcing a herd immunity policy. Patrick Vallance, the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser, said, "The most important thing to do is to cause a kind of herd infection so that many people develop immunity to this disease and prevent a 'second shock'." The 'second shock' refers to a large-scale cluster infection occurring again when the spread of the first community infection or large-scale transmission subsides. According to this policy, school closures were postponed, and recommendations to suspend operations of restaurants and pubs were not issued.

However, this policy was reversed 180 degrees following a research report by Professor Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London. The researchers predicted that if the UK government maintained a passive response policy, 30% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients would require intensive care, and in the long term, 260,000 people could die. This death toll includes not only deaths directly caused by COVID-19 but also statistics including deaths from worsening underlying diseases and other illnesses. They warned that the surge in COVID-19 patients could lead to shortages of hospital beds and medical personnel, potentially collapsing the medical system itself.

In response to this research report and worsening public opinion, the UK government is emphasizing active suppression policies and social distancing. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently urged, "If someone in your family shows symptoms of COVID-19, all members must self-isolate for 14 days," adding, "Avoid all unnecessary contact and travel, and do not go to pubs or cinemas. This is especially important for those over 70, pregnant women, and people with underlying conditions."

Soldiers belonging to the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Battalion of the 2nd Operations Command are conducting disinfection work to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the afternoon of the 23rd at the 2.28 Memorial Student Library in Dong-gu, Daegu.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Long Road Ahead for Vaccine Development = What is necessary for herd immunity to be effective as a policy is 'vaccination.' However, there is no vaccine for COVID-19 yet, and it is expected to take about a year to develop. Without a vaccine, to form herd immunity, the infection must be allowed to spread. However, the social damage experienced during this process could snowball due to the aforementioned difficulties in mass control and the possibility of medical system collapse.

Quarantine authorities also view policy implementation of herd immunity as practically difficult. Son Young-rae, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters' public relations team, said, "The theory of immunity for 60-70% of the population is about herd immunity discussed abroad, and in Korea, there is no plan to form herd immunity to end COVID-19."

He continued, "Herd immunity involves a large number of people being infected and suffering great damage, so the strategy is to delay and reduce infections as much as possible, sustaining the situation continuously until vaccines or treatments are developed," explaining the domestic quarantine strategy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.