[Reading Science] Does Postponing School Opening Help Reduce Infections?

The firmly closed main gate of a kindergarten in Seoul. The government has postponed the opening of kindergartens, elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide until early April.
Photo by Kim Hyun-min, Asia Economy

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jong-hwa] The government has decided to postpone the opening of kindergartens and elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide by two more weeks until early April to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Although there were some opposing voices, most agree on the fundamental premise of preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

As the pandemic has become a reality, not only South Korea but also major countries around the world are urgently implementing school closures and practicing "social distancing" as the most important quarantine measure. Does postponing the school opening actually help reduce the spread of infectious diseases?

The postponement of school openings is causing various social issues, including adjustments to complex academic schedules related to students' right to learn and college entrance applications for high school seniors, as well as childcare problems for working parents. In the United States, where schools have already opened, debates over school closures are ongoing due to these issues.

Opponents of school closures point out that "it causes much more complex problems beyond canceling classes," and "in poor families where childcare or school meals are difficult to solve, it could become a blind spot in COVID-19 prevention." On the other hand, supporters argue that "school closures are the most effective firewall to prevent the spread of infectious diseases and can buy time for vaccine development."

Supporters are generally scientists. On what grounds do scientists claim that postponing school openings or closing schools helps prevent the spread of infectious diseases? Recently, a research team from Imperial College London in the UK announced research results stating that "school closures help prevent the spread of infectious diseases and are effective in suppressing infections when implemented together with social distancing."

The research team simulated the effects of implementing five quarantine measures together: ▲7-day self-isolation of symptomatic patients ▲14-day isolation of patients and their families ▲social distancing for the elderly aged 70 and above ▲social distancing for all age groups ▲full closure of elementary, middle, and high schools with 25% attendance of essential university researchers. They calculated the reduction ratio of intensive care unit (ICU) beds needed per 100,000 people when each policy was implemented.

Seven-day isolation of symptomatic patients was estimated to reduce ICU demand by 33%, simultaneous isolation of symptomatic patients and family self-isolation by 53%, and school closures by about 12-14%. When multiple measures were implemented simultaneously, the effect increased significantly: implementing isolation of symptomatic patients, family self-isolation, and social distancing for those aged 70 and above together reduced ICU demand by 67%. Adding school closures increased the reduction by up to 14 percentage points, resulting in over 81% reduction.

A French research team also recently announced that implementing school closures and telecommuting simultaneously greatly enhances quarantine effectiveness. According to the team, implementing an 8-week school closure alone at the early stage of infection spread can delay the peak by one month but only reduces the maximum number of infections by about 10 percentage points. However, if 25% of adults telecommute, the peak can be delayed by about two months, and the number of patients can be reduced by nearly 40 percentage points.

The arrival hall at Incheon International Airport on the 19th, when the government expanded special entry procedures to all incoming travelers worldwide to prevent the influx of COVID-19.
[Photo by Moon Honam, Asia Economy]

Similar research results have been published for past infectious diseases. According to a study published in an international journal by Dr. Simon Cauchemez's team at King's College London in 2009, school closures during an epidemic reduce overall infections by about 15%, and when infections peak, school closures show a significant reduction effect of around 40%.

The research team investigated how effective various school closure measures implemented since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic were in preventing virus infections. They also warned that if children are not sufficiently isolated or policy decisions are delayed, the effectiveness of preventing infection spread may decrease.

Examples of such cases include Hong Kong in 2008, France in 1957, and the United States in 1918. These countries had already reached the peak of the epidemic during these periods but started school closures late, resulting in no preventive effect against the epidemic, according to the analysis.

The Imperial College London research team emphasized, "Implementing all five policies simultaneously for five months is the most effective but unrealistic," and stressed, "7-day isolation of symptomatic patients and social distancing for all ages are essential, and family self-isolation and school closures should be appropriately implemented to enhance effectiveness."

Furthermore, wouldn't implementing telecommuting together, as the French research team suggests, be even more effective? Issues arising from delayed academic schedules and other problems can be discussed later. Isn't preventing the spread of infection the top priority right now? Everyone actively participating in social distancing is the way to overcome COVID-19 as soon as possible.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.