How Was the 70-Year-Long North American Standoff Resolved?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] North Korea and the United States have repeated 'reconciliation and conflict' for 70 years. Next year, after completing the one-and-a-half-year 'denuclearization journey' that led to the North Korea-US summit and working-level talks, it seems to be reverting to a situation of 'fire and fury.' Attention is focused on how to ease the expected military tensions next year.

The first meeting between North Korea and the US after the Korean War ended was the year after the armistice on July 27, 1953. It was at the 1954 Geneva Conference. At this meeting, hostility between the two countries reached its peak. It was an environment where no results from dialogue could be produced. Over time, Chairman Kim Il-sung, who desperately needed dialogue with the US, requested talks through China in 1973. The first contact between Alfred Jenkins of the US Liaison Office in China and Lee Jae-pil, North Korea's ambassador to China, took place. The effect appeared. North Korea joined the World Health Organization (WHO) and in December 1985 also joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US proposed a peace mode to North Korea in 1988 on the occasion of the Seoul Olympics. To ensure a successful Olympics, food aid to North Korea and the suspension of the 'Team Spirit' military exercises were agreed upon.

However, the peaceful atmosphere did not last long. When North Korea declared its withdrawal from the NPT in 1993, the Korean Peninsula froze again. This led to the 'first nuclear crisis.' At that time, US President Bill Clinton warned of military action, saying, "If North Korea develops and uses nuclear weapons, it will be the end of North Korea." North Korea countered with statements about turning Seoul into a 'sea of fire.' This was when the 'brinkmanship' tactic emerged. The crisis was overcome by former US President Jimmy Carter, who crossed Panmunjom in June 1994 and negotiated directly with Chairman Kim. As a result, the 'North Korea-US Geneva Agreed Framework' was signed.

In January 2002, when President George W. Bush labeled North Korea as part of the 'axis of evil,' the dialogue mode ended. North Korea declared the lifting of its nuclear freeze and proceeded with a nuclear test in 2006. The international community also acted, immediately adopting UN Security Council Resolution 1718 imposing sanctions on North Korea. The atmosphere was reversed by former President Roh Moo-hyun. President Roh urged President Bush in Hanoi, Vietnam, saying, "If North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons, let's sign a tripartite peace agreement among South Korea, North Korea, and the US." The US removed North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism in 2008. However, North Korea did not change. North Korea expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors related to the Yongbyon nuclear facility and proceeded with its sixth nuclear test.

Reconciliation and conflict are ongoing even now. US President Donald Trump and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un appear to be returning to 2017, when they mocked and insulted each other with names like 'Little Rocket Man,' 'madman,' 'senile old man,' and 'old war maniac.'

Experts are narrowing down three possible cards President Trump can choose going forward: military response, low-intensity military pressure combined with negotiations, and proactive containment. The 'fire' mentioned by President Trump is a military option. However, a preemptive strike could be condemned as an 'aggressive war.' On the other hand, military pressure could be increased while maintaining behind-the-scenes contact with North Korea. But it is difficult to offer the sanctions relief that North Korea desires. Ultimately, it is expected that the US will continuously pressure North Korea by strengthening its strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.

A diplomatic official said, "In 2017, the US military reviewed various military options against North Korea, including full-scale war," and predicted, "If denuclearization talks completely collapse, the US may blockade North Korea's maritime routes under the pretext of enforcing economic sanctions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.