"Iran's Revolutionary Guard Seizes Control of Decision-Making... Prospects for Ceasefire Talks Remain Slim"

U.S. Think Tank ISW Issues Special Report

"Revolutionary Guard Refuses to Compromise with the United States"

Following the outbreak of war in Iran, analysts have pointed out that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), known for its hardline stance against the United States, has effectively seized control of the decision-making process within Iran, making the prospect of a ceasefire agreement highly unlikely.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, offered this assessment of the war phase between the United States and Iran in a special report on the Iran war published on the 25th (local time) in cooperation with the Critical Threats Project (CTP).

According to the report, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike, IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and his key associates have virtually taken over the regime. Vahidi and his military inner circle are reportedly sidelining civilian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and leading the decision-making process.

The ISW noted that this is also the reason why the Iranian negotiating team remains persistently uncooperative in talks with the United States. During the first round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, Iranian officials reportedly maintained an ambiguous stance on detailed issues. This suggests that they are not in a position to make independent decisions and that a unified negotiating position has yet to be established within the regime.

The ISW further assessed that the prospects for substantial progress in negotiations are slim, given that the Revolutionary Guard is refusing to compromise with the United States. On April 24, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Islamabad, Pakistan, to convey his country's position on ending the war. However, he soon departed for Oman, and no direct meeting with the United States has yet materialized.

Pakistani media have also reported that Iran is refusing direct talks with the U.S. delegation and is demanding the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade as a precondition for negotiations.

The ISW pointed out that this pattern—characterized by inflexibility, insisting on maximal demands, and using preconditions to delay or block negotiations—demonstrates the consistent negotiation line led by the Revolutionary Guard. Iranian media have described Araghchi's trip to Pakistan as an effort to strengthen trust with regional mediators, rather than a direct attempt to negotiate with the United States.

U.S. media outlets report that Iran's new leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not consolidated power and is relying heavily on the Revolutionary Guard to run state affairs. Some observers have noted that because the Supreme Leader was seriously injured during the airstrike, normal activities and communication are no longer possible.

On this day, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled the dispatch of the U.S. negotiating team to Pakistan after confirming Iran's demands. However, he clarified that not sending the team does not mean the U.S. intends to resume the war, stating, "If you want to talk, you just have to call," reiterating his willingness to continue negotiations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.