[Battleground Preview] Seoul Han River Belt: Opposition Judgment vs. Real Estate Sentiment

Seven Districts Including Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong
High Proportion of Swing and Undecided Voters
Sensitive to Redevelopment and Reconstruction Issues

Editor's NoteThe Han River, Nakdong River, and Geumho River... Politics and rivers may seem like an unlikely combination, but during elections, the story is different. Apartment complexes and industrial zones form around rivers. People gather there. Depending on their areas of interest, their voting tendencies change. Ahead of the 9th nationwide local elections on June 3, this series will analyze the key battlegrounds surrounding the "River Belt" in three parts.

The Han River Belt is drawing attention as the decisive battleground that will determine the outcome of the Seoul election. The People Power Party, aiming to defend its position, is highlighting the government and ruling party's failures in real estate policy. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Korea, seeking to regain control, is emphasizing criticism of the opposition and the qualities of its candidate.

Jeon Wono, Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor (left), and Oh Sehun, People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor. Yonhap News Agency

The Han River Belt refers to the districts facing the Han River, excluding the three Gangnam districts. This includes Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong, Gwangjin, Dongjak, Yeongdeungpo, and Gangdong. Unlike areas with a fixed support base for a particular party, the proportion of centrist and swing voters is high here, causing the voting tendencies to shift in every election.

Recent election results illustrate this trend: In the 7th local elections in 2018, the Democratic Party of Korea achieved a sweeping victory, but in the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election and the 8th local elections, the People Power Party won decisively. In the 22nd National Assembly elections, the Democratic Party of Korea secured a landslide victory, winning 9 out of 12 constituencies. Meanwhile, in the 21st presidential election, the combined vote count for the People Power Party and the Reform New Party surpassed that of the Democratic Party of Korea. Political commentator Lee Jonghoon analyzed, "The Han River Belt is gradually becoming more like Gangnam, as people with economic means move in and housing prices rise." A Democratic Party lawmaker representing a Seoul district remarked, "In the Seoul mayoral election, the middle ground voters, rather than the fixed base, will determine the outcome," adding, "A 2 to 3 percentage point difference in the Han River Belt could decide the result."

Given that this region faces many issues such as redevelopment and reconstruction, real estate policy is expected to be a major issue in this election as well. Oh Sehoon, the incumbent Seoul mayor and People Power Party candidate, is continuing his offensive regarding the Long-term Ownership Special Deduction (Jangtukgong) for apartments. A representative from Oh Sehoon's campaign stated, "Above all, we will emphasize the need to increase supply during the campaign," adding, "There are plans to begin construction of 310,000 new homes by 2031, and we will highlight that this is only possible if Mayor Oh remains in office."

There are predictions that the Democratic Party of Korea will respond in a low-key manner. Professor Cho Jinman of Duksung Women's University commented, "Homeowners may feel uneasy about tax issues under the current administration, but it is difficult for Jeong Wono's camp to outright oppose the president's policies or propose something entirely new," adding, "They likely believe it is better to maintain a calm approach rather than unnecessarily provoking conservative voters."

However, this election is affected by President Lee Jaemyung's solid approval ratings and internal conflicts within the People Power Party. These factors could mean that the wave of "opposition party judgment" sentiment may surpass the impact of real estate psychology in the Han River Belt. Political commentator Park Sangbyeong said, "It is true that Seoul's housing price increase has strengthened conservative forces, but in this election, even the conservatives in the Han River Belt may abstain or cross-vote for Jeong due to disappointment in the People Power Party." As a result, the Democratic Party of Korea is also focusing efforts on reclaiming the Han River Belt.

Bae Hyunjin, head of the Seoul chapter of the People Power Party, said in a phone interview, "We have not yet conducted a detailed analysis, but I believe that the number of districts where we are at a disadvantage, including the Han River Belt, has increased significantly." Assemblyman Kim Jaeseop also commented, "While the Han River Belt is indeed becoming more conservative, it is difficult to say that it is a stronghold."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.