[Battleground Preview] Seoul Han River Belt: Opposition Judgment vs. Real Estate Sentiment

The Hangang Belt has emerged as the key battleground that will determine the outcome of the Seoul mayoral election. The People Power Party, seeking to maintain its hold, is highlighting the real estate policy failures of the government and ruling party, while the Democratic Party, aiming to reclaim the seat, is emphasizing calls to judge the opposition as well as its candidates' credentials.

Jeon Wono, Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor (left), and Oh Sehun, People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor. Yonhap News Agency

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The Hangang Belt refers to the districts bordering the Hangang River, excluding the three Gangnam districts. These include Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong, Gwangjin, Dongjak, Yeongdeungpo, and Gangdong. Rather than having a fixed support base for any specific party, these districts have a high proportion of swing and undecided voters, whose preferences shift in every election.

In fact, recent election results show this volatility. In the 7th local elections in 2018, the Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory, but in the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election and the 8th local elections, the People Power Party won by a wide margin. In the 22nd National Assembly election, the Democratic Party secured 9 out of 12 constituencies, scoring a decisive victory. In the 21st presidential election, the combined votes for the People Power Party and the Reform New Party surpassed those of the Democratic Party. Political commentator Lee Jonghun analyzed, "The Hangang Belt is gradually becoming more like Gangnam as property values rise and more affluent residents move in." A Democratic Party lawmaker representing a Seoul district predicted, "In the Seoul mayoral election, the outcome hinges more on swing voters than on the party base. A 2 to 3 percentage point difference in the Hangang Belt could decide the winner."

Given that redevelopment and reconstruction are major issues in these areas, real estate policy is expected to be a key issue in this election as well. Oh Sehun, the Seoul mayor and People Power Party candidate, continues to press on the issue of the special long-term holding deduction (Jangtukgong) for apartments. A member of Oh Sehun's campaign team said, "Above all, we will emphasize the need to increase housing supply during the campaign. We plan to break ground on 310,000 new units by 2031, and we will highlight that this is only possible with Mayor Oh in office."

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There are expectations that the Democratic Party will respond with a low-key approach. Professor Cho Jinman of Duksung Women's University said, "While homeowners may feel uneasy about the current government due to tax issues, it will be difficult for candidate Jeon Wono's team to openly oppose the president's policies or propose something new. They are likely to judge that there is no need to provoke conservative voters and will opt for a calm stance."

However, in this election, two variables are at play: President Lee Jaemyung's solid approval ratings and internal strife within the People Power Party. There is a possibility that the wave of 'judging the opposition' sentiment could outweigh real estate concerns in the Hangang Belt. Political commentator Park Sangbyung said, "While it is true that rising Seoul property prices have strengthened conservative sentiment, in this election, even conservatives in the Hangang Belt are likely to abstain from voting for the People Power Party out of disappointment, or even cross-vote for candidate Jeon." For this reason, the Democratic Party is also putting significant effort into winning back the Hangang Belt.

Bae Hyunjin, head of the Seoul chapter of the People Power Party, said in a phone interview, "We have not yet conducted a detailed analysis, but I believe the number of weak districts, including the Hangang Belt, has increased overwhelmingly." Assemblyman Kim Jaeseop added, "While it is true that the Hangang Belt has become more conservative, I would not say we hold a clear advantage."

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