"Even Pork Belly and Tylenol Out of Reach"... UK Activates 'Worst-Case Scenario' Amid Prolonged War

Hormuz Blockade Risk Spreads to the Dinner Table
Disruptions in Pharmaceutical Ingredients Add Pressure on the NHS

"What if the war between the United States and Iran continues?"

As the possibility of a prolonged war originating in the Middle East grows, the UK government has begun preparing for a "worst-case scenario" that assumes shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. Concerns are mounting that disruptions in energy and logistics could trigger not just price hikes but threaten the entire food and medical supply chain. The pharmaceutical industry has even warned that the National Health Service (NHS), the UK's public healthcare system, could face a drug shortage within weeks.

A supermarket in London. Photo by AFP News Agency

Hormuz Risk... Direct Hit to the Food Supply Chain

According to the BBC and other British media on April 18 (local time), the government is formulating detailed response scenarios—including disruptions to the food supply—centered around the 'COBRA' emergency response committee, a joint crisis management body of relevant ministries.

The key issue is that soaring energy prices would directly pressure the foundations of food production. If oil supply is destabilized due to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer production costs could spike or factories could be forced to halt operations, which could immediately lead to a reduction in the production of agricultural and livestock products.

Additionally, a decrease in the supply of carbon dioxide—used widely throughout the food industry—has been identified as another risk factor. Since carbon dioxide is essential for slaughtering, packaging, storage, and beverage production, a reduction in supply could create bottlenecks throughout food distribution. Some scenarios under consideration even anticipate that supply could fall below 20% of typical levels.

However, authorities believe that rather than an immediate "food shortage crisis," the first visible change is more likely to be a reduction in the types of products available in stores, resulting in fewer choices for consumers.

"Drug Shortages"… Warning Signs for the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

Tensions are also rising in the medical sector. The pharmaceutical industry group 'Medicines UK' has warned that the supply of raw materials for pharmaceuticals is rapidly declining due to the impact of the war, and that shortages of certain items could begin to appear within weeks.

Logo of the National Health Service (NHS) of the United Kingdom. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

The group noted that the supply of chemicals and solvents needed to manufacture active pharmaceutical ingredients has dropped significantly, forecasting that the NHS could face considerable strain as early as this summer. In fact, some manufacturers are reportedly securing only a quarter of the usual amount of raw materials.

Items at risk of shortage include aspirin and paracetamol-based painkillers, antibiotics, and stroke prevention medications. Most of these drugs rely on petrochemical-based ingredients, meaning that shocks to the energy market are directly linked to pharmaceutical supply problems.

Impact Expands to Medical Consumables

Experts warn that the impact could extend beyond pharmaceuticals to affect the entire healthcare system. Professor Richard Sullivan of King's College London has stated that supply chain disruptions are already affecting cancer therapeutics and consumables used in robotic surgery.

There are also concerns that even basic medical consumables—such as syringes, medical gloves, and IV bags—could become scarce, potentially increasing the operational burden on the NHS. Since the UK relies heavily on imports for pharmaceuticals and raw materials, the longer logistics disruptions persist, the greater the shock is expected to be.

The UK government and industry are focusing on the possibility of "gradual pressure," where both price increases and a reduction in available items occur simultaneously, rather than a complete supply collapse. If instability in the Middle East persists, it appears that noticeable changes in daily life for consumers will be inevitable.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.