Q2 Retail Industry RBSI Stagnates at '80' Amid Aftermath of Middle East War

Impact of Middle East War: Weakened Consumer Sentiment and Higher Logistics Costs

Department Stores (115) Surpass Baseline, Driven by Surge in Foreign Tourists

The retail industry’s expected “spring season boost” is likely to be hindered by the aftermath of the Middle East war.

According to the 2026 Q2 Retail Distribution Industry Business Survey Index (RBSI) released by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry on April 19, based on a survey of 500 retail companies, the outlook index recorded 80, a level similar to the previous quarter’s 79. The RBSI uses 100 as a baseline: a figure above 100 indicates that more companies have a positive outlook for the next quarter, while a figure below 100 means a majority has a negative outlook.

Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2026 Q2 Retail Business Survey Index (RBSI). Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry

The Chamber stated, “While the second quarter typically benefits from increased outings during spring, Family Month events, and demand for moving and weddings, the impact of the Middle East war is constraining these domestic consumption drivers.” In fact, in this survey, 69.8% of respondents cited significant burden from rising purchase and logistics costs due to increased oil prices and foreign exchange rates, while only 6.4% said they felt no such burden.

By retail format, the recovery of offline channels and the decline of online channels were clearly divergent. Department stores (112→115) were the only category to surpass the baseline of 100. The surge in foreign tourists, driven by the “K-consumer goods” boom and the weak won, contributed to the positive outlook. In addition, a stable customer base and increased consumption due to rising stock prices were also identified as positive factors.

Convenience stores (65→85) reflected increased expectations for sales of quick meals such as lunch boxes, as well as beverages and alcoholic drinks, due to a rise in foot traffic caused by mild weather. However, compared to other retail formats, higher logistics costs negatively affected the outlook.

Supermarkets (67→80), which handle food in nearby commercial districts, showed a relatively strong rebound, buoyed by increased demand for home-cooked meals as dining-out prices rose. However, intensifying competition for fresh food between large discount stores and convenience stores dampened the rise in expectations.

Large discount stores (64→66) showed only slight improvement. Heightened competition with other offline channels, changes in consumption patterns, and higher prices have led to a stronger tendency toward small-quantity purchases, which negatively affected the outlook. Additionally, reduced consumption following the Lunar New Year holiday was also cited as a contributing factor.

Online shopping (82→74) was the only segment where the outlook index declined. Intensified competition between domestic platforms and Chinese e-commerce (such as Aliexpress and Temu), a decrease in consumption due to increased outdoor activities in spring, and greater burden from logistics and delivery costs caused by the Middle East war were all identified as constraints on market recovery.

Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry Second Quarter 2026 Retail Distribution Sector-by-Sector Business Sentiment Index (RBSI). Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Choi Jayoung, President of the Korea Distribution Association, emphasized, “Given that domestic economic activity and consumer sentiment have been dampened by the aftermath of the Middle East war, it is crucial for the government to play an active role, including fiscal spending and tax relief measures to ease the burden of high oil prices.”

Heewon Lee, Director of the Distribution and Logistics Promotion Institute at the Chamber, stated, “It is important that the latest supplementary budget aimed at overcoming the Middle East war crisis is implemented swiftly and in a targeted manner, so that it leads to increased consumption and reduced logistics costs for traditional markets and the retail industry.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.