"Lower Chance of a 'Difficult CSAT': Fewer Medical School Applicants Expected to Ease Difficulty... Key Variable Is 'Satan-Run'"

About 550,000 to Take This Year's CSAT, Up 30,000 from Last Year
Medical School Quotas Frozen, Fewer Top-Tier Repeat Test-Takers Expected
Intense Competition for Top Grades in Science Studies Due to "Satan-Run" Phenomenon

For the 2026 College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT), it is expected that the exam will be set at a relatively moderate level, as the policy to increase medical school admissions has been reverted and the proportion of repeat test-takers (graduates or above) has decreased compared to last year. Typically, a "difficult CSAT" is anticipated when there is a need to increase differentiation among top-performing students. However, this year's CSAT is likely to see a decrease in the number of top-tier test-takers, so the overall difficulty will be determined by the presence of one or two discriminating questions per subject.

On the 3rd, high school seniors are preparing for the 2026 College Scholastic Ability Test mock exam at Geumcheon High School in Geumcheon-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dongju

According to the Ministry of Education and the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation on November 12, the number of applicants for this year's CSAT is 554,174, an increase of 31,504 from last year (522,670). This rise is largely due to the 371,897 high school seniors (67.1%) born in the Year of the Golden Pig, which is 31,120 more (a 9.1% increase) than the previous year (340,777). The number of graduates taking the exam is 159,922 (28.9%), a decrease of 1,862 (1.2%) from last year (161,784). As the quota for medical schools has been frozen at pre-expansion levels, the number of graduate test-takers has slightly declined. The admissions industry believes that among these, top-performing repeat test-takers who aimed for medical schools have dropped out. As a result, competition among top students is expected to ease somewhat.

Lee Manki, Director of the Uway Educational Assessment Research Institute, stated, "When there are many graduates, the test makers tend to make the exam more difficult, but this time, the number of graduates has decreased compared to last year. I think the test will be moderate, with one or two questions providing differentiation."

The key variable for this year's CSAT is expected to be the phenomenon known as "Satam Run," where science-track students are increasingly choosing social studies subjects. The number of social studies test-takers is 324,405 (61.0%), an increase of 62,897 from last year, while the number of science studies test-takers is 120,692 (22.7%), a decrease of 70,342 over the same period. The number of students taking the "Social and Science Studies" combination (one social studies subject and one science studies subject) is 86,854 this year, an increase of 34,659 from last year.

With the sharp increase in social studies test-takers, it has become even more difficult to achieve grades 1 or 2 in the science studies section, which now has a smaller pool of students. Jongro Academy estimates that the number of students able to achieve grade 2 or higher in the nine social studies subjects will increase by 16,880 compared to last year, while in science studies, it will decrease by 12,316.

Lim Seongho, CEO of Jongro Academy, said, "In the science studies section, there may be students who fail to meet the minimum CSAT requirements." He added, "However, both the early and regular admissions are seeing a surge in humanities-track students, which means competition among humanities students will intensify. Humanities students will need to approach regular admissions with caution, while science students may feel disadvantaged due to the 'Satam Run.' However, the situation could change, so nothing is certain yet."

For Korean and mathematics, questions with differentiation will be set with a maximum standard score of around 140 points, while for English, which is graded on an absolute scale, the proportion of students achieving grade 1 is expected to be around 6-8%. Based on this year's mock exams, the CSAT may be easier than the September mock exam, where the proportion of students achieving grade 1 in English was 4.5%. Lim noted, "Conversely, in the June mock exam, the proportion was as high as 19%, showing significant fluctuation. For the actual CSAT, the proportion is expected to align with the historical average."

Since the introduction of absolute grading for CSAT English, the proportion of students achieving grade 1 has been 10.03% in 2018, 5.30% in 2019, 7.43% in 2020, 12.66% in 2021, 6.25% in 2022, 7.83% in 2023, 4.71% in 2024, and 6.22% in 2025. The average of these figures is 7.55%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.