[ChwiYakGukga]⑩Drug Market Up to 33 Trillion Won... Larger Than the Private Education Market

■ Chapter 3. National Economy Shaken by the Drug Economy


33.1 Trillion Won Estimated from Seizures at Retail Prices

Professor Sungsoo Park’s Research: Dark Figure of Drug Crimes 29 Times Higher

Lethal Even in Tiny Amounts: LSD’s R

The potential size of the domestic narcotics distribution market has been estimated at 33 trillion won, surpassing the size of South Korea's private education market, which stands at 27 trillion won. This means that more money is fueling the underground economy, undermining the nation’s future, than is being invested in education for the next generation. The number of domestic drug offenders is estimated to be close to 670,000. This translates to one out of every 77 people in the country having had contact with drugs, underscoring the seriousness of the drug problem.

On May 20, The Asia Business Daily applied the research model developed by Sungsoo Park, Professor of Police Science at Semyung University, who calculated the dark figure (the ratio of hidden crimes) for drug-related crimes as 28.57 times. By inputting the average annual amount of narcotics seized and the retail price trends from 2021 to 2025, the estimated potential size of the domestic drug market was calculated at 33.1208 trillion won. This figure far exceeds the total of 27.5 trillion won in private education expenses tallied in the Ministry of Data and Statistics' recent “2025 Elementary, Middle, and High School Private Education Expenditure Survey.”

How Was the 33 Trillion Won Drug Market Estimated?

To calculate the scale of drug distribution in South Korea, the analysis was based on the amount of narcotics seized by prosecutors. This is because the wastewater-based narcotics survey by the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety is limited in scope, only covering certain drugs and failing to detect small amounts. For example, LSD, which has a single-use dose of just 100 micrograms (1 microgram = one-millionth of a gram), cannot be captured by wastewater analysis.

To minimize statistical distortion, all cases involving seizures of 1 kilogram or more in a single incident were excluded. The volatility caused by intensive crackdowns in 2023 was also reduced by averaging the seizure amounts over the past five years. The analysis covered ten major narcotics, including methamphetamine, ketamine, synthetic cannabinoids such as JWH-018, ecstasy (MDMA), and LSD.

For price estimates, a conservative value was applied, based on retail prices cited in 30 court rulings from 2021 to 2025, as well as information from former and current drug distributors, Telegram drug sales channels, and investigative agency estimates. Since not all narcotics are distributed at the retail level, the market size may be somewhat overestimated. However, it is important to note that courts determine the forfeiture amount based on the retail price standard when the transaction value is unknown during sentencing.

The amount of narcotics seized by prosecutors is compiled in grams. Accordingly, prices per dose were converted to a per-gram basis. For instance, LSD, which is 300 times more hallucinogenic than methamphetamine, has a single-use dose of just 100 micrograms and is distributed in sticker form at 100,000 won each. Assuming all LSD is sold at retail, this equates to 1 billion won per gram. For MDMA, where a single tablet weighs 0.5 grams, the price was calculated per gram. Other narcotics were found to range from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of won per gram.

Without LSD, the Market Is About 8 Trillion Won... Recent Surge in LSD

The most notable drug is LSD. According to prosecutors, LSD is a tasteless, odorless, and colorless hallucinogen first synthesized in 1938 by Swiss chemist Albert Hofmann. LSD is so potent that even a very small amount taken orally can induce hallucinations. It is highly likely to cause distorted perceptions and feelings of fear, anxiety, and dread, increasing the risk of leading to other crimes.

According to statistics compiled by the reporters, LSD accounts for 75.7% of the total estimated market value. Excluding LSD, the market size drops to 8.042 trillion won. This is because the dose required for a “trip” (an experience of hallucinogenic effects) is extremely small, just 100–150 micrograms. One gram of LSD is enough for 10,000 simultaneous doses. Until 2022, there were almost no cases of seizures exceeding 50 grams. However, this sharply increased to 2,333 grams in 2023, 1,804 grams in 2024, and 152 grams last year. The amount seized in 2023 alone is enough for half the population to experience a dose. LSD is an exceptionally dangerous drug that defies comparison.

Although methamphetamine is more commonly distributed in terms of weight, when converted to “potential number of doses,” LSD surpasses all other drugs. Not only has its distribution become more active, earning it the moniker “club drug,” but its paper form makes it difficult to detect when disguised as mail or documents. Professor Park stated, “LSD may not be distributed entirely at the retail level, but the fact remains that a massive quantity entered and was seized in South Korea,” adding, “Excluding it from calculations simply because of its high value would actually distort the data.”

"Dark Figure Is 28.57 Times... 1 Out of 77 People Have Used Drugs"

Drug-related crimes are often compared to “the tip of the iceberg.” Unlike violent crimes such as murder and robbery, where there are clear victims and perpetrators, drug crimes are conducted covertly, making them harder to detect. Traditionally, the dark figure for drug crimes was conventionally estimated at ten times the reported cases.

However, in recent years, the Ministry of Justice and other authorities have begun using the figure of 28.57 times. This is based on the findings from Professor Park’s 2016 qualitative research, “A Study on the Measurement of the Dark Figure of Drug-Related Crimes.”

In that study, Professor Park used a calculation model that reflected the weighted input from four groups: drug offenders, investigators and related public officials, academics and experts, and medical and rehabilitation workers. In-depth interviews were conducted to assess the perceived dark figure. The comprehensive result predicted a ratio of 28.57 times, which is consistent with the 25–30 times dark figure applied by U.S. investigative and legal authorities, including the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).

Last year, 23,403 drug offenders were apprehended in South Korea. When the dark figure is applied, this number rises to 668,624. This means that one out of every 77 people in the country may have already used or become addicted to drugs.

"An Attempt to Uncover the Reality Beneath the Surface... Actually an Underestimation Error"

Sungsoo Park, Professor of Police Science at Semyung University. Photo by Yonhap News

Attempts to estimate the size of the narcotics market are efforts to reveal how much drug crime remains hidden and how the resulting underground economy is eroding the national economy. This suggests that drugs have evolved from being a problem for certain groups to a “universal threat.”

Regarding the attempt to estimate the market size, Professor Park commented, “Without accurately estimating the dark figure for drug crimes, appropriate policies cannot be formulated. We cannot know how to respond not just in terms of punishment, but also in treatment, rehabilitation, and prevention.” He added, “Estimating drug crime data and costs is the first step in developing effective countermeasures.”

He also pointed out the limitations of dark figure research. Professor Park noted, “It is unfortunate that the research was qualitative rather than quantitative,” and explained, “Due to recent issues such as the rise of medical-use narcotics and the quantitative expansion of crimes via non-face-to-face platforms like Telegram, there is a risk of underestimation.”

He went on to say, “The scientific estimation of the dark figure for drug crimes and the actual size of the distribution market is a driving force for fundamental reform of the Narcotics Control Act and the criminal justice system. If we are to determine the appropriate scale of healthcare intervention and restorative justice infrastructure, further active research of this kind is essential.”

Special Reporting Team｜Jang Heejun, Oh Jieun, Park Hosu, Lee Jiye, Park Jaehyun

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.