[News in Numbers] Entering an Era of Low Growth and Low Inflation? Growth Rate and Inflation Both at '1%'

South Korea's economic growth rate has slowed to the 1-2% range, and the export growth rate has also fallen to the lowest level in 14 months at around 1%, raising concerns about low growth. Moreover, with the inflation rate staying in the 1% range for three consecutive months, some analysts interpret this as 'weak consumer activity due to low growth, leading to a slowdown in inflation,' suggesting that the country is entering the early stages of a prolonged recession.

A difficult life and exhausting days mark the end of the year. With high inflation, household debt, and the lowest economic growth rate on record, the worries of ordinary people have deepened. Jeonse fraud, kidnapping and murder, and violent attacks with weapons have made life unstable. As the Year of the Black Rabbit comes to a close, we hope that the shadow of the harsh recession will lessen in the New Year 2024. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

1.9%.

This is the forecasted economic growth rate for South Korea next year. The Bank of Korea projected this year's economic growth rate at 2.2% and next year's at 1.9%. The forecast for next year's growth rate was adjusted once from 2.3% in February to 2.1% in May, and has now been lowered again. The forecast for the year after next is even lower. The growth rate forecast for 2026 is presented as 1.8%. The Bank of Korea expects that "due to the global economic slowdown and the full impact of U.S. tariff increases, growth centered on exports will somewhat decline."

1.4%.

This was the export growth rate in November. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, last month's exports recorded $56.35 billion, an increase of 1.4% compared to the same month last year. The export growth rate has been positive for 14 consecutive months since turning from negative to positive in October last year. However, the outlook is not bright. The base effect is weakening, causing the export growth rate to continue slowing down. The export growth rate was 18.2% in January, then sharply dropped to 10.9% in August, 7.1% in September, and 4.6% in October. The 1.4% export growth rate recorded in November is the lowest increase since October last year.

1.5%.

This was the consumer price inflation rate in November. According to the consumer price trends announced by Statistics Korea, the consumer price index in November was 114.40 (2020=100), up 1.5% compared to the same period last year. This marks three consecutive months in the 1% range. The inflation rate stayed in the 2% range for five consecutive months after recording 2.9% in April, then has maintained the 1% range for three months with 1.6% in September and 1.3% in October. Some view this as a result of weak consumption and express concerns about the possibility of deflation. Despite the government's explanation that this is a "normalization process of high inflation," the analysis that inflation is slowing due to reduced consumption caused by delayed domestic demand recovery is gaining traction.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.