The New Powder Keg of the Middle East... Intensified Civil War as Syrian Rebels Advance

The Syrian Civil War in a Lull Since 2020
HTS Rebels Advance After Capturing Aleppo the Previous Day

Reuters Yonhap News

Although the situation in Lebanon has calmed down with a temporary ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-aligned Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, the long-standing civil war in Syria, another powder keg in the Middle East, is showing signs of intensifying.

According to major foreign media including the Associated Press (AP) on the 1st (local time), the rebel forces led by the Islamic militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), based in northwestern Syria, seized control of Aleppo, the "commercial center of Syria," and key strongholds in the northwest of Idlib province the day before. AP reported, "There are observations that HTS has advanced into central Hama province, but this has not yet been confirmed."

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group on the Syrian civil war, government forces added firepower and troops overnight and established defensive lines. Russia, a supporter of the Syrian government, also provided supporting fire. Russia, which conducted airstrikes on Aleppo for the first time since 2016 alongside the Syrian Air Force the previous day, carried out fighter jet airstrikes on the northwest Idlib province and rebel-held northern Hama areas including Mork, Khan Shaykhun, Kafr Nabl, Hazarin, and Tal Kokab on this day. Iran also promised support. Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, met with Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria, in Damascus and stated, "We are ready to support the government's counterattack against the rebel's surprise offensive."

HTS, joining forces with small anti-government armed groups supported by T?rkiye, launched a surprise capture of Aleppo on the 27th of last month, reigniting the Syrian civil war which had been in a lull since 2020. The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, is considered the most complex civil war of the 21st century, involving confrontations between government forces and rebels intertwined with internal conflicts based on religion and ethnicity as well as external interventions. Over the past four years, government forces have controlled major Syrian cities with support from Russia and Iran.

Some analysts suggest that the rebels may have taken advantage of the weakened support from Russia and Iran to the Syrian government forces due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to launch a counterattack. Russia, engaged in the nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine, has recently become dependent on receiving over 10,000 troops from North Korea, while Hezbollah, the strongest proxy force in the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance," has significantly diminished due to the destruction of its command structure and military and financial assets by Israel.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted, "The Syrian president is facing the most serious challenge to his power in nearly a decade due to the rebel offensive," and pointed out that "the balance of power in the Middle East may change going forward."

However, positions among external forces opposing the Syrian government forces are divided. The United States, which has designated HTS as a terrorist organization, stated it is not involved in this attack. The U.S. supports the Kurdish militia Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stationed in northeastern Syria. On the other hand, T?rkiye views Kurdish factions within its borders as separatist terrorist groups and remains wary of the SDF.