Is Haniya Assassination Retaliation Beginning... Middle East Tensions Reach Peak (Comprehensive)

Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Attack on Israel
Assassination Incident of Hamas Haniya in Capital
NYT "Uncertain How Severe the Attack Will Be"
Second Direct Attack on Israel This Year
Middle East Tensions Rise, New York Oil Prices Surge 4%
US "No Signs of Middle East Escalation Yet"

As Iran reportedly ordered a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the top leader of the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, tensions in the Middle East have reached a peak. Israeli authorities have not commented on Haniyeh's assassination but stated they are preparing for all possible scenarios.

Iran Orders "Direct Attack on Israel"

On the 31st of last month (local time), The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing three Iranian government officials, that Iran's Supreme Leader and military commander-in-chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued an order to "directly attack Israel" during an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council convened that morning.

Earlier, Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, was assassinated around 2 a.m. that day in Tehran, the capital of Iran, where he had visited to attend the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran and Hamas have pointed to Israel as the party behind the assassination.

President Pezeshkian, along with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Revolutionary Guard, and Iran's UN mission, stated that Iran has the right to defend its sovereignty and will retaliate against Israel. Iran also ordered the formulation of defense plans in case Israel or the United States attacks Iran amid the escalation of the conflict.

Hamas War: Will Iran Join the Fight?

With Iran formalizing a direct retaliatory attack against Israel, concerns are growing that the war between Israel and Hamas could escalate to involve Iran. Ali Baez, head of Iran affairs at the International Crisis Group, analyzed, "Iran will have no choice but to retaliate against Israel to deter further Israeli attacks, defend its sovereignty, and maintain the trust of Islamic armed groups."

Iran, which has supported Islamic armed groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas and engaged in so-called 'shadow wars' against Israel, launched its first airstrike against Israel in April in retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian consulate in Syria. However, most of Iran's drones and missiles were intercepted, preventing significant damage.

The NYT reported that the level of Iran's response remains unclear. According to the NYT, Iranian military leaders are considering combined drone and missile attacks on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa in Israel. Iran is also exploring simultaneous attacks on other fronts such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq to maximize the impact of the assault. However, Iran plans to avoid attacks on civilian targets.

Deepening Military Conflict in the Middle East

Golan Heights [Image source=Yonhap News]

Since the outbreak of the Gaza Strip war last October, Israel has clashed with various armed groups supported by Iran, and recently the military conflict between them has deepened. On the 27th of last month, rockets from the Lebanese armed faction Hezbollah fell on a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and pushing the situation toward a full-scale war.

Israel has also heightened its offensive posture against its enemies in recent weeks. According to CNN, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address to the nation, "Israel has dealt deadly blows to our enemies in recent days," explaining, "Three weeks ago, we attacked Hamas military leader Muhammad Deif; two weeks ago, we struck the Houthis (Yemeni rebels); and yesterday, we targeted Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr." However, Haniyeh was not mentioned. Netanyahu emphasized, "We face difficult times ahead and are preparing for all scenarios."

Concerns Over Escalation Push New York Oil Prices Up 4%... US Says "No Signs Yet"

As military tensions in the Middle East peaked that day, September delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged 4.26%, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2023.

However, the United States stated there are no imminent signs of escalation in the Middle East following Haniyeh's assassination. John Kirby, White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, said at a regular briefing, "We are monitoring the situation very closely," but added, "There are no signs of imminent conflict escalation."

Regarding speculation that the incident has derailed ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, he remarked, "We believe there are still valid processes in place," adding, "There are possible discussions and parties interested in engaging."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.