Summer Heatwaves Can Be Accurately Predicted 10 Days in Advance!

UNIST Professor Lee Myungin's Team Develops 'Heatwave Probability Prediction System' Overcoming Limitations of Traditional Forecasts

Predicted 2018 Extreme Heatwave One Week in Advance, Published Consecutively in Weather and Climate Extremes

A system capable of predicting the probability of heat waves in South Korea up to 10 days in advance has been developed.

With record-breaking heat forecasted every year, it is expected to help the public prepare for heat waves in advance.

From the left, research fellow Seonrae Tak, professor Myungin Lee.

A research team led by Professor Lee Myungin from the Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering at UNIST (President Lee Yonghoon) has developed a system that can predict the occurrence of heat waves in South Korea 10 days ahead. By utilizing the Korea Meteorological Administration's Global Ensemble Prediction System, the team expanded the forecast window for summer heat waves to 10 days in advance and laid the groundwork for extending the issuance time of heat wave advisories.

The newly developed system demonstrated better performance than existing forecasting methods. In particular, it showed superior results in South Korea compared to other East Asian regions. During the severe heat wave of 2018, the system accurately predicted the onset and end of the heat wave a week in advance, proving its practical utility.

A prediction model capable of forecasting heat waves up to two weeks in advance is also under development. This system specifically analyzed how the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere contributes to heat wave prediction. The research team identified situations in climate prediction systems where soil moisture and maximum temperatures change rapidly, and emphasized the need to improve soil moisture prediction and data accuracy.

Professor Lee Myungin explained, "This study has greatly enhanced the potential for disaster prediction through South Korea's meteorological forecasting system."

Tak Seonrae, the first author of both papers, said, "With these research results, we will be able to provide the public with accurate heat wave information during the summer and reduce related damages."

Prediction results of the start date of the 2018 major heatwave in South Korea using the Heatwave Research Center's heatwave probability forecasting system.

The results of this research were published consecutively in the world-renowned journal on meteorological and climate disasters, Weather and Climate Extremes, on April 4 and May 24. This study was conducted through the Heat Wave Extreme Weather Research Center project, supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences.

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