[The Editors' Verdict] The Super Election Year and the Threat of AI Disinformation

WEF Identifies Biggest Risks for This Year
Immediate Concerns for the Global Economy

The global buzzword for 2024 is ‘elections.’ Presidential and general elections will be held in 76 countries worldwide. In terms of population, more than 4 billion people will be voting, making it truly a ‘super election year.’ Since the election results will significantly impact the global power landscape as well as international affairs such as diplomacy, security, and the economy, attention is inevitably focused on them. South Korea’s general election, scheduled for April, is also included among these super elections.

On the 13th, Taiwan’s presidential election will take place. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans pro-American and supports independence, is fiercely competing against the Kuomintang (KMT), the main opposition party with a pro-China stance. China, which advocates for ‘One China,’ wants to prevent the DPP from being re-elected, while the United States, wary of China’s expanding influence, is anxiously watching the results to see if power will shift to the KMT. South Korea, which is involved in the Taiwan issue due to strengthened Korea-US cooperation, cannot remain unaffected by this election outcome.

The biggest highlight is the U.S. presidential election, which will conclude in early November. The unprecedented rematch between incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump is the most likely scenario. If former President Trump overcomes legal risks and wins, he may shift toward stronger protectionism, potentially raising tariffs on all imports by 10 percentage points. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) could also be dismantled. This would have a significant impact on the South Korean economy, which has a large trade surplus with the U.S. The British magazine The Economist has even warned that “the biggest risk the world faces this year is Trump.”

However, recently, a factor that could threaten the world even more than Trump has emerged, drawing attention. That is ‘disinformation.’ The World Economic Forum (WEF), known for its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, held every January, has identified this as the greatest risk this year. In particular, the WEF placed exaggerated, false, and misleading information generated using cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) at the top of short-term risk factors. This is because it can erode democracy, polarize society, and pose the most immediate threat to the global economy.

As technology becomes increasingly sophisticated, the destructive power of disinformation is rapidly growing. Recently, a post claiming that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) appeared on its social media account. Although this was revealed to be fake news caused by hacking, Bitcoin’s price surged nearly 3% temporarily before plunging about 7%, resulting in astronomical amounts of money evaporating.

As this example shows, various fake content created using AI can manipulate individuals in diverse ways, harm the economy, and destroy society. New types of crimes are expected to surge, such as deepfake pornography made by unauthorized use of celebrities’ bodies and stock market manipulation caused by fake photos of a fire at the U.S. Department of Defense building (the Pentagon).

The theme of the WEF meeting from the 15th to the 19th is ‘rebuilding trust.’ Professors Sarah Krebs and Doug Kriner of Cornell University wrote in their paper titled ‘How AI Threatens Democracy (Democracy Journal)’ that “if we give up on objective facts or the ability to discern facts in the news, the trust that forms the foundation of democratic society can collapse.” As they pointed out, it is a critical time when we urgently need the ability to discern the truth of content through a ‘trust but verify’ approach and critical thinking that does not blindly believe fake news.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.