"This Could Really Lead to Defeat, Putin's Victory Is a Disaster"… Ukraine Faces Worst-Case Scenario Amid Aid Delays

US Republican Noncooperation... Delay in Passing Ukraine Aid Budget
Risk of Crisis Due to Weapon Shortage if External Aid Cuts Off

Concerns are growing that Ukraine could be defeated in the war as the U.S. House of Representatives delays the passage of the Ukraine aid budget.

According to CNN on the 15th (local time), U.S. and European allied government officials have begun assessing the impact of the delay in U.S. aid to Ukraine on Ukraine's defense capabilities and the possibility of a long-term defeat. Western intelligence agencies are analyzing how long Ukraine can hold out without aid from the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

An anonymous senior U.S. Department of Defense official said that if the worst-case scenario materializes, serious disruptions could continue for months, and Ukraine could even be defeated by next summer.

On the 15th (local time), Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut, Donetsk Province, eastern Ukraine, are practicing evacuation procedures for wounded soldiers.
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

Due to the changed stance of the U.S., the Ukrainian military is reportedly already limiting ammunition consumption. Because of this, U.S. and Ukrainian officials reported that in some frontlines, while Russian forces fire 5 to 7 shells, Ukrainian forces can only fire one.

A bigger problem is that if the U.S. appears to be withdrawing, European countries that have supported Ukraine so far are also likely to delay or suspend aid one after another. Regarding this, Democratic Congressman Mike Quigley warned, "If our situation worsens, our allies will be the same."

Western officials believe that if the negative scenario becomes reality and external aid is cut off, Ukraine will face a crisis as key weapons run out one after another. It is expected that long-range missiles will be the first to run out, followed by surface-to-air missiles, shells, and portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. A senior U.S. Department of Defense official said, "There is no guarantee that having them means we will definitely win, but without us, they will certainly fail."

On October 11th (local time), Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, is speaking at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

Earlier, the White House submitted a security budget bill to Congress in October that included $61.4 billion (about 80 trillion won) in military aid to Ukraine, but its passage has been delayed as the Republican Party, which controls the House, has not cooperated.

If the nearly two-year-long Ukraine war, which began on February 24 last year, ends in a Russian victory, it is expected to seriously damage U.S. global strategy and European security.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas warned, "Now is not the time to talk about war fatigue. If we give in, Russian President Vladimir Putin will win, and that will be a disaster for everyone." A European diplomat also said, "I don't think people truly understand what it practically means if Ukraine collapses."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.