Japanese Pro-Korea Scholar on South Korea-Japan Agreement: "Suspending 9·19 Agreement Is Excessive... Extended Deterrence Alone Cannot Prevent North Korean Provocations"

Yoon Government's Suspension of 9·19 Military Agreement Excessive
Action Taken as Satellite Launch, Not Nuclear Test... May Appear as Double Standard
Change in North Korea Difficult Through Sanctions and Pressure Alone
Contradictory but Must Employ Deterrence and Reassurance

Professor Tadashi Kimiya, University of Tokyo, Japan (Photo by Yonhap News)

Professor Tadashi Kimiya of the University of Tokyo mentioned that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's extended deterrence policy toward North Korea cannot ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Although it may seem contradictory, he argued that a policy combining both appeasement and pressure should be pursued simultaneously to instill both deterrence and reassurance toward North Korea. He also expressed the opinion that President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of the 'suspension of the effectiveness of the September 19 military agreement' was an excessive measure.

Professor Kimiya made these remarks on the 29th of last month at the Waseda University International Conference Hall in Japan during a joint press meeting with the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He earned his doctorate by researching the economic policies of the Park Chung-hee administration at Korea University during 1986-1989, when democracy was emerging in South Korea. Since then, he has been regarded as one of Japan's leading Korea experts, dedicating over 30 years to Korea-Japan relations.

It Is Difficult to Change North Korea’s Behavior by Strengthening Deterrence Alone

He stated, “The Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s North Korea policy, based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance, is not an arbitrary judgment but rather a necessary response to changes in the international environment surrounding South Korea.” However, he added, “It is difficult to prevent North Korean provocations by strengthening deterrence alone. Although contradictory, policies must approach North Korea with two strategies: deterrence and simultaneously reducing the threats North Korea perceives to provide reassurance, thereby influencing its behavior. Not only the U.S. but South Korea can partially implement this approach.”

He diagnosed that the current Yoon administration’s approach, which relies solely on sanctions and pressure, cannot induce behavioral change. He analyzed that a dual-track strategy that also provides the 'reassurance' North Korea seeks from the international community is necessary.

Regarding South Korea’s response to North Korea’s military reconnaissance satellite launch, specifically the partial suspension of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, he evaluated that it increased security instability on the Korean Peninsula. He said, “I wonder if such measures are necessary for a satellite launch rather than a nuclear test,” adding, “The approach of ‘South Korea also launches satellites, so North Korea should not’ could be perceived by North Korea as a double standard.”

Next Year’s Korea-Japan-China Political Events Unlikely to Affect Cooperation

He attached great significance to the possibility of restoring summit diplomacy among Korea, Japan, and China next year. He said, “Currently, the trilateral relationship is somewhat strained due to the China versus Korea-Japan dynamic, but even if there are no tangible achievements, simply initiating summit talks is meaningful.” The foreign ministers of Korea, Japan, and China held a meeting in Busan on the 26th of last month and agreed to accelerate preparations for the trilateral summit. He also believed that next year’s election events in Korea and the U.S. would not signify a shift in the diplomatic policies of the U.S. and Japan. South Korea’s general election is scheduled for April next year, the U.S. presidential election for November, and Japan may also dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election.

Professor Kimiya said, “If the ruling party loses in next year’s Korean general election, the Yoon administration’s power may weaken, potentially reducing diplomatic momentum, which is a concern for the Japanese government. However, South Korea’s policy toward Japan will not change.” He emphasized, “If former President Donald Trump returns (is elected), there may be unpredictable aspects, but it is unlikely that U.S. North Korea policy will change drastically, so the framework of South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation will be maintained.”

However, he noted that there are voices within Japan expressing concerns about possible changes in South Korea’s policy toward Japan, including historical issues. He said, “There are concerns that the policy toward Japan could change depending on the election results or if a progressive government takes power, especially regarding historical issues.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.