Country with Birth Rate '0.7'... "Youth Population Halved by 2040"

2020 Population 6.32 Million → 2040 Population 3.18 Million 'Halved'
"Statistics Korea Repeatedly Forecasted Rebound but Actual Figures Fell Short"

If the current birth rate is maintained, it is projected that the domestic youth population (ages 0-14) will decrease to half of its current level by 2024. During the same period, the total population is expected to decline by 2.68 million.

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The National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) released a report on the 24th titled "Total Population Projection Reflecting Recent Low Birth Trends," which estimated the total population assuming that the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2024, forecasted by Statistics Korea to be at its lowest point (0.7), remains constant.

The projection results indicate that the total population in 2040 will be 49.16 million, a decrease of 2.68 million (5.17%) from 51.84 million in 2020.

In particular, the population decline is expected to be concentrated mainly among the youth and infants under 15 years old. The youth population aged 0 to 14, which was 6.32 million in 2020, is projected to decrease by 49.6% to 3.18 million by 2040. The infant population aged 0 to 6 in 2040 is expected to drop to 1.3 million, less than half of the 2.63 million recorded in 2020.

This analysis by NABO differs from previous projections by Statistics Korea. Until now, Statistics Korea had projected that the total fertility rate would bottom out and then rebound.

In contrast, NABO assumed a scenario where the birth rate does not increase, reflecting the reality that the timing of the "lowest total fertility rate" predicted by Statistics Korea has been repeatedly delayed due to the entrenchment of low birth rates. As a result, NABO's projections show 1.25 million fewer youth and 860,000 fewer infants compared to Statistics Korea's estimates.

In fact, Statistics Korea had projected in 2016 that the total fertility rate, which had fallen to 1.18 that year, would rebound the following year, but the birth rate did not increase. In 2019, it was expected to bottom out at 0.86 in 2021 and then rise, but the decline continued through 2022.

Statistics Korea's projected lowest total fertility rate is 0.7 in 2024.

The report pointed out, "Statistics Korea has projected a rebound in the total fertility rate after reaching its lowest point in every projection, but actual total fertility rates since 2015 have fallen short of these forecasts," adding, "Considering recent social conditions, it is questionable whether the total fertility rate will rebound in the short term."

It further stated, "There is a need for total population projections that reflect a scenario where the decline in birth rates does not stop in the short term."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.