Will the Vacancy in the US House Speaker Position Prolong?... Difficulties in Persuading Republican Defectors

Concerns are rising that the vacancy caused by the unprecedented removal of the Speaker of the House in U.S. congressional history could potentially be prolonged. Although the Republican Party, the majority party in the House, has elected Steve Scalise as the next Speaker candidate, about ten members within the party have publicly expressed opposition.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to CNN on the 12th (local time), at least 12 of the 221 Republican members have publicly opposed Scalise's candidacy. Since the Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House compared to the Democrats (212 seats), if defections occur, there is a possibility of a repeat of the turmoil experienced during the election of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy earlier this year. To be elected Speaker, a majority of the full membership (433 members), which is 217 votes, is required.

Currently, Scalise is engaging in persuasion efforts to gather votes from supporters of his rival, Chairman Jim Jordan, ahead of the House floor vote, but the atmosphere is reported to be challenging. In the party primary held the previous day, Scalise received only 113 votes, while his competitor, Chairman Jordan, received 99 votes. The Washington Post (WP) reported, "Scalise held a long meeting with House Republican members that day, but it appears there has been no progress in building support for the Speaker position," adding that "some described the meeting as unproductive."

The Hill, a congressional-focused media outlet, reported that so far, eight members, including Bob Good (Virginia), Lauren Boebert (Colorado), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia), have publicly stated they will vote for someone other than Scalise in the floor vote. Many of them remain committed to supporting Chairman Jordan.

Lauren Boebert, a member of the Freedom Caucus, a hardline Republican group, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "When my name is called, I will cast my vote for Jim Jordan," adding, "The American people want true leadership change, not the status quo." Andrew Ogles, also a member of the Freedom Caucus, said, "No one has changed their support," and "It's time to start voting now."

Scalise, a descendant of Italian immigrants, is a seasoned politician who served as a Louisiana state representative and state senator before being elected to the U.S. House of Representatives nine times since 2008. Despite having been a victim of a shooting incident, he is regarded as a typical conservative politician who supports gun ownership rights and opposes gun control legislation.

However, concerns about Scalise's health have been growing as he is battling blood cancer. Far-right-leaning Representative Greene pointed out, "I hope he overcomes cancer rather than sacrificing his health in this difficult congressional situation." Former President Donald Trump, who publicly supported Chairman Jordan, also mentioned Scalise's fight against blood cancer during an appearance on Fox News Radio that day, stating, "I don't know how he can perform that job (Speaker) with such a serious cancer."

Some analysts say that the actions of top Republican leaders are fueling defections against Scalise. The New York Times (NYT) noted that rival Chairman Jordan has not yet expressed full support, and that former Speaker McCarthy, who was ousted by a resolution of removal, is also considered to have a cold relationship with Scalise. McCarthy told reporters that day, "Scalise said he would get 150 votes, but he did not get that many," adding, "He can secure the votes needed (to be elected Speaker), but it is a big challenge."

Although a House floor session is scheduled for the day, it remains uncertain when the vote to elect the Speaker will actually take place. Accordingly, some within the Republican Party are reportedly discussing a plan where Scalise becomes Speaker and Chairman Jordan takes over the floor leader position. However, considering that Scalise and Jordan have shown differences on key policies such as temporary budget bills, the possibility is considered low. WP also reported that some Republican members are discussing alternative candidates should Scalise withdraw from the race.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.