Japan: "By 2050, Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes Will Become Staple Foods"... 80% of Farms Face Extinction Risk

Currently, 86% of Farmers Are Aged 65 or Older
By 2050, Even Spinach Will Be Impossible to Produce Domestically

In Japan, where low birth rates and aging population are serious issues, it is projected that the domestic agricultural population will decrease by more than 80% by 2050 compared to now. There are even concerns that the staple food, rice, may no longer be sufficiently supplied by domestic production, and in the worst-case scenario, the staple food could shift from rice to potatoes or sweet potatoes.

A service agent assisting elderly farmers is spraying pesticides. (Photo by JNN)

On the 18th, Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) cited statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, reporting that as of February, the number of domestic farms, including agricultural corporations, was 929,000 households, but the average age was 68.4 years as of last year, with 86% being elderly aged 65 or older.

Mitsubishi Research Institute forecasted that by 2050, the total number of farms will decrease to 177,000 households, an 81% reduction compared to the current scale. During the same period, Japan’s population is expected to decline by about 16%. This will create a situation where supply cannot keep up with demand.

If this trend continues, Nikkei expressed concern that the amount of domestically produced agricultural products on dining tables will drastically decrease. Nikkei analyzed, "If the decline in harvest volume from 2016 to 2021 continues, spinach production in Japan will be impossible by 2049," adding, "Radish production will be halved, and cherries and pears will no longer be domestically cultivated."

Above all, the situation is more severe for rice, the staple food. Mitsubishi Research Institute predicts that rice production will decrease by 56% to 2.91 million tons in 2050 compared to 2022. This represents a shortage of about 1 million tons relative to demand.

Japan already relies heavily on imports for a significant portion of its food. The food self-sufficiency rate based on calories (Kcal) is 38% in Japan, the lowest among the Group of Seven (G7) countries. In comparison, the United States is at 110%, and Germany at 80%.

However, due to the Ukraine war causing grain prices to rise and the weak yen increasing procurement costs, Nikkei reported that it is becoming increasingly difficult to meet demand solely through imports.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries even proposed a scenario where the staple food could shift from rice to potatoes or sweet potatoes if rice production significantly declines. Citing ministry statistics, Nikkei stated that even if production is increased focusing on rice and wheat, one adult can only fulfill 1,720 kcal per day. The current daily calorie requirement per adult in Japan is 2,168 kcal.

Japanese agricultural job search site. (Photo by agri navi)

The ministry predicted that if cultivation shifts to root crops, it would be possible to meet 2,368 kcal per day through domestic production alone without imports.

However, the diet assumed by the ministry requires replacing all staple foods with sweet potatoes or potatoes. For breakfast, two roasted sweet potatoes, one slice of bread, salad, and fruit; for lunch, two roasted sweet potatoes, one plate of boiled potatoes, and two plates of stir-fried vegetables; and for dinner, one plate of boiled potatoes and grilled fish, etc. The ministry added, "This is an extreme assumption made solely to meet the necessary calorie intake."

Although hypothetical, the Japanese government is feeling a sense of crisis and is taking measures. The government is currently reviewing the Basic Law on Agriculture and Rural Areas. The interim measures announced in May included plans such as raising prices to enable farmers to continuously produce crops.

Additionally, the government plans to develop machines that can achieve high efficiency with minimal operation, such as AI-equipped combines that elderly farmers can easily operate.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.