[Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club] Kim Jong Un Returns from Russia... Next Step: North Korea-China-Russia Military Exercises?

Possibility of Joint Exercises During Chairman Kim's Visit to Russia
North Korea Likely to Participate Mainly in Maritime Training Due to Aging Air Power

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, has completed his visit to Russia and is on his way back home, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 18th. During this visit, Kim met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to significantly strengthen military cooperation, raising the possibility of North Korea participating in joint military exercises with Russia and China, known as the North-China-Russia joint exercises.

The North Korean Korean Central News Agency stated on the same day, "Comrade Kim Jong-un successfully completed his official friendly visit to Russia and departed Vladivostok on September 17." Having left Pyongyang on the 10th, Kim’s arrival back in North Korea on this day marks his longest overseas stay since taking power, lasting a total of 8 nights and 9 days.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Chairman Kim and President Putin confirmed their intention to strengthen military cooperation during this North Korea-Russia summit. As the war in Ukraine prolongs, Russia is suffering from a shortage of military supplies, making North Korea’s provision of artillery shells and other weapons urgently needed. Meanwhile, North Korea, lacking advanced military technology, is expecting technology transfers from Russia, indicating that the interests of both sides align.

If North Korea and Russia share weapon systems through military technology cooperation, there is a high possibility that this will lead to joint military exercises. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been diplomatically isolated, and it could use the North-China-Russia joint military exercises to demonstrate its military strength. In fact, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly met with Chairman Kim during the 70th anniversary event of the Korean War armistice held in Pyongyang on July 27 and agreed on broad military cooperation measures. The National Intelligence Service also revealed in last month’s National Assembly Intelligence Committee report that Shoigu proposed the sale of artillery missiles to North Korea and joint military exercises.

The North-China-Russia joint exercises are likely to involve North Korea participating in existing military drills conducted by Russia and China. In June, China and Russia conducted a “joint air strategic patrol” over the East Sea and East China Sea, followed by the “Northern Union-2023” joint naval exercise in July, which involved Russian Pacific Fleet escort ships. Considering North Korea’s aging fighter jets, it is more likely to participate in maritime exercises.

There is also speculation that Chairman Kim might visit China during the Hangzhou Asian Games (September 23 to October 8), where the North Korean delegation will participate, to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and finalize arrangements for the North-China-Russia joint exercises. China, while closely aligned with North Korea and Russia, does not want its own position to diminish. However, China needs to maintain some distance from North Korea and Russia, which the West, including the United States, classifies as ‘international outcasts’ and ‘rogue states,’ so it is expected that the level of joint exercises will be set to keep the North-China-Russia alliance loose. Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Division at the Sejong Institute, evaluated that "through Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia, North Korea-Russia relations have developed into a comprehensive, strategic alliance beyond the Cold War-era alliance." Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, also predicted that "as the North-China-Russia response structure strengthens in response to the enhanced security cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, the new Cold War system will ultimately be reinforced."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.