[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Satellite Fails Again... "Retry in October"

North Korea "Emergency Explosion System Error During Stage 3 Flight"
Re-launch Scheduled Targeting October Workers' Party Foundation Anniversary

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, has once again suffered a serious loss of face. Following the failed military reconnaissance satellite launch in May, the recent failure has added pressure to complete the nuclear force system.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 24th at around 3:50 a.m., North Korea launched a space launch vehicle from Dongchang-ri towards the south. This was the second attempt in 85 days since the first failed launch on May 31, but it failed again.

North Korea officially announced the failure of its second military reconnaissance satellite launch on the same day. The Korean Central News Agency reported at around 6:15 a.m., "The National Aerospace Development Administration carried out the second launch by loading the reconnaissance satellite ‘Malligyong-1’ onto the new satellite carrier rocket ‘Chollima-1’ at the West Sea Satellite Launch Station in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province." It added, "The first and second stages of the new satellite carrier rocket Chollima-1 flew normally, but an error occurred in the emergency explosion system during the third stage flight, resulting in failure." The Joint Chiefs of Staff also stated that "the space launch vehicle claimed by North Korea was launched southward but is assessed as a failure."

North Korea has been preparing for reconnaissance satellite launches since 2021. It was presented as part of the ‘Five-Year Plan for Defense Science Development and Weapon System Development’ at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party at that time. Chairman Kim’s obsession with military reconnaissance satellites stems from their being a core link in North Korea’s ‘nuclear force system.’ Reconnaissance satellites, along with nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles to deliver them, constitute the three essential conditions for completing nuclear forces.

For this reason, North Korea’s attempts to launch satellites are expected to continue. The consecutive launch failures have exposed the unstable aspects of North Korea’s rocket technology, including ICBMs, and they seek to shed this stigma. Unlike the increasingly advanced nuclear and missile capabilities, North Korea’s reconnaissance capabilities have been evaluated as remaining at a ‘blind’ level. Chairman Kim is also likely to increase pressure on the military and technicians.

The news agency also stated, "The National Aerospace Development Administration explained that the cause of the accident was not a major problem in the reliability and system of the stage actuators, and expressed its position to thoroughly investigate the cause and take countermeasures, then carry out the third reconnaissance satellite launch in October."

North Korea’s targeting of October appears to be aimed at the ‘greatest political holiday,’ the anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party. North Korea designates and commemorates October 10, 1945, when President Kim Il-sung delivered the keynote speech at the Conference of Party Leaders and Enthusiasts of the Northwest Five Provinces of the Korean Communist Party, as the founding day of the Party. Although this year is not a major anniversary falling on a 5- or 10-year cycle, it is an important political event, so the launch is expected around the commemoration.

The problem is that finding the cause of the launch failure and improving the technology is not easy. It is estimated that at least 4 to 6 months are required for repairs and reorganization. Testing and evaluation must also be conducted. This schedule requires considerable time, so if the launch is rushed, the possibility of additional launch failures is high.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.