All-Solid-State Batteries, Only 4% Penetration Rate by 2030

Although market interest in all-solid-state batteries, considered the next-generation battery, is increasing, it is forecasted that their market penetration rate will be only 4% by 2030.

On the 24th, SNE Research released a report titled "Market Change Outlook for Separators According to the Lithium-Ion Battery (LIB) Market? In the Era of LIB Hegemony Competition, What Is the Direction of Separators?" stating, "LIB supply volume will increase 4.3 times from 687 GWh in 2023 to 2,943 GWh in 2030, accounting for more than 95% of the battery market," and "the penetration rate of all-solid-state batteries is expected to be around 4%."

All-solid-state batteries are considered the "next-generation battery" due to their safety and high energy density. The liquid or gel-state electrolytes used in conventional lithium-ion batteries expand depending on temperature and can cause fires if the electrolyte leaks due to external impact. In contrast, the solid-state electrolyte in all-solid-state batteries has a lower risk of fire and explosion. Since fewer components such as separators are used, the weight is also reduced.

Battery companies, including the three domestic complete battery manufacturers, are conducting research and commercialization of all-solid-state batteries. The government is also planning large-scale support such as research and development (R&D), tax incentives, and financial support for the development of all-solid-state batteries. However, actual electric vehicle demonstrations of all-solid-state batteries are expected to take place only by 2030. Even if the government’s plan proceeds well, vehicle demonstrations can barely begin in 2030.

All-solid-state batteries face various technical challenges such as high interfacial resistance, electrolyte thickness, particle agglomeration, and void formation, and there are many tasks to solve before mass production can be achieved. Additionally, the main materials are expensive metals, making it difficult to secure cost competitiveness for batteries, which lowers the likelihood of mass production. Currently, the electrolyte for LIB costs $9 per kilogram globally, whereas the main raw material for promising sulfide-based solid electrolytes in all-solid-state batteries, lithium sulfide (Li2S), costs around $1,500 to $2,000 per kilogram. This is more than 200 times the cost of LIB electrolytes.

SNE Research forecasted, "The battery market will develop as a long-term LIB-centered market, and accordingly, LIB supply volume is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2030 compared to the current level," adding, "Therefore, existing LIB supply chains such as copper foil and separators will remain dominant for a long time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.