TrendForce "Q3 DRAM Price Decline Narrows"

Q3 DRAM Average Selling Price Down 0~5% QoQ
Certain Mobile DRAM Items Expected to Rise 5%
DRAM Price Recovery from Next Year... Possible as Early as H2

There is a forecast that the decline in the average selling price (ASP) of memory semiconductor DRAM may moderate in the third quarter due to production cuts. While the price drop in the second quarter was 13-18% compared to the previous quarter, it is expected that the decline in the third quarter could be limited to a maximum of 5%. There is also an expectation that prices for certain mobile DRAM items may rise in the third quarter.

On the 5th, market research firm TrendForce stated, "Due to continuous production cuts by DRAM suppliers, the overall DRAM supply is gradually decreasing." They also explained, "Seasonal demand is helping to reduce inventory pressure on suppliers."

TrendForce forecasted that in the third quarter, the DRAM ASP for applications such as ▲PC ▲server ▲mobile ▲graphics ▲consumer will all decline by 0-5%. Compared to the second quarter, when prices for PC and server DRAM were expected to fall by 15-20%, mobile by 13-18%, and graphics and consumer by 10-15%, the rate of decline is expected to shrink significantly within just one quarter.

Quarter-over-quarter forecast of DRAM average selling price (ASP) change rate for Q2 and Q3 /
[Image provided by TrendForce]

TrendForce also predicted that among mobile DRAM products, the ASP of next-generation 'High-K Metal Gate (HKMG)' process applied 'Low Power Double Data Rate (LPDDR)5X' products could rise by up to 5% in the third quarter. This is the first price increase forecast since the industry downturn began last year.

The HKMG process is characterized by using materials with a high dielectric constant (K) in the insulating layer inside the DRAM transistor, which blocks leakage current and improves capacitance. It is a next-generation process that increases speed while reducing power consumption.

SK Hynix began mass production of LPDDR5X using the HKMG process in November last year, the first in the semiconductor industry. Micron in the U.S. also announced around the same time that it provided LPDDR5X samples based on the HKMG process to customers and forecasted product mass production this year.

Meanwhile, TrendForce expects DRAM prices to rise starting next year. The market is already forecasting that prices could begin to increase as early as the end of the second half of this year. Researcher Noh Geun-chang from Hyundai Motor Securities said, "DRAM prices will start to rebound significantly from the fourth quarter," adding, "From the second half of next year, double-digit increases are expected every quarter."

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to prepare for the upcoming market recovery by focusing on high value-added products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DDR5 DRAM, which are gaining attention due to increasing artificial intelligence (AI) demand. Shim Sang-pil, Vice President of Samsung Electronics' Foundry Business Division, said at the 'Samsung Foundry Forum 2023' held on the 4th, "During my more than 20 years in the semiconductor industry, downturns have never lasted more than two years," and added, "We will be well prepared as the upturn is coming soon."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.